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Incoming RECESSION?

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    TechGromitTechGromit Member Posts: 2,156 ■■■■■■■■■□
    In The Netherlands there appears to be more vacancies than people to fill them. I just received a job offer last week and my current employer has trouble keeping people. Just so many opportunities available. 

    It's the same with my employer, more job openings that we can fill with quality candidates. A few of my former co-workers left for more $, but I believe they are short sighted.  It's not all about the $ in your paycheck, it's good low cost medical benefits, yearly bonus, pension, stock options, 401k match, profit sharing, and very stable employment environment. 

    Just a follow up to this point. Once of my co-workers who jump ship for more money at another smaller company, seven months later they laid off his entire department. He said when he was applying for positions, employers received hundreds of applications per job, (and he has a current CISSP cert)  where as it was under ten before. He did end up landing another job a few months later, don't know if he took a pay cut, but it's only a contract job that will last till the end of the year. He's seriously looking to get back in with my company. I say you can't put a price on job stability.

    Still searching for the corner in a round room.
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    volfkhatvolfkhat Member Posts: 1,055 ■■■■■■■■□□
    edited April 2023
    TechGromit said:

    Just a follow up to this point. Once of my co-workers who jump ship for more money at another smaller company, seven months later they laid off his entire department. He said when he was applying for positions, employers received hundreds of applications per job, (and he has a current CISSP cert)  where as it was under ten before. He did end up landing another job a few months later, don't know if he took a pay cut, but it's only a contract job that will last till the end of the year. He's seriously looking to get back in with my company. I say you can't put a price on job stability.


     "job stability" can be an illusion.  :D:D

    I actually prefer contracting 
    I've more than doubled my salary since the Pandemic, and i like the variety that comes with it.

    Plus it motivates me to keep my skills up-to-date  <3<3
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    DatabaseHeadDatabaseHead Member Posts: 2,753 ■■■■■■■■■■
    It's here.  

    HOPE

    Housing - sales the lowest in 25 years (NAHB)  Recession Levels
    Orders - way down in manufacturing (ISM) Recession Levels
    Profits - Companies are showing record low profits, YOY (Earnings) 
    Employment - next domino to fall.  (Claims)

    I believe we are coming into a huge recession.  What's really startling is lendering.  70% of our GDP comes off of lending.  Cash reserves for families are at an all time low, meaning they can no longer borrow.  Coupled with that, you have the second biggest banking collapse in the US history so now stricter lending regulations in place and an overwhelming sentiment of not wanting to borrow / take loands.  

    Look for companies who are insulated.  


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    volfkhatvolfkhat Member Posts: 1,055 ■■■■■■■■□□

    SOFT LANDING ??


    (or is WINTER still coming?)
     :) 
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    shochanshochan Member Posts: 1,004 ■■■■■■■■□□
    You mean, incoming INFLATION & its staying WAY too long!
    CompTIA A+, Network+, i-Net+, MCP 70-210, CNA v5, Server+, Security+, Cloud+, CySA+, ISC² CC, ISC² SSCP
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    JDMurrayJDMurray Admin Posts: 13,039 Admin
    edited November 2023
    Inflation will naturally recede when consumers decide to stop buying goods and services at inflated prices. While consumers are willing pay ridiculously-high prices for food, energy, clothing, services, etc. prices will stay high. ("What the market will bear" is a tenet of the Free Market.) Getting the consumer use to new price-points is what big corporations periodically try to do; this time around they have the backing of the US Federal Reserve--the government agency whose primary purpose is to prevent inflation. Why is nobody in the Press yellin' at Yellen and Powell about inflation? An economic conspiracy?
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    volfkhatvolfkhat Member Posts: 1,055 ■■■■■■■■□□
    it's 2024!!
    FINALLY  :D

    How are you guys holding up?

    Is the RECESSION here for you all?

    or are we still talking/waiting for it to arrive?


    Any predictions for the new year?
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    JDMurrayJDMurray Admin Posts: 13,039 Admin
    If your definition of recession is "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth" then nobody in the USA has seen that since the first half of 2022. I do favor moving towards recession conditions as a way to slow down the Biden Inflation Plan.
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    beadsbeads Member Posts: 1,531 ■■■■■■■■■□
    IT created 287,000 jobs in 2022 while only creating 701 in 2023 according to WSJ last week. This is normal. IT tends to first over hire believing our own hype. Keep those workers too long, then panic, releasing much of the dead weight as quickly as possible. We see this once a decade and will likely continue to do so. I first heard this analogy back in the 1980s when we had "too many CS grads" when I graduated. This is nothing new.

    - B/Eads
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    UnixGuyUnixGuy Mod Posts: 4,565 Mod
    beads said:
    IT created 287,000 jobs in 2022 while only creating 701 in 2023 according to WSJ last week. This is normal. IT tends to first over hire believing our own hype. Keep those workers too long, then panic, releasing much of the dead weight as quickly as possible. We see this once a decade and will likely continue to do so. I first heard this analogy back in the 1980s when we had "too many CS grads" when I graduated. This is nothing new.

    - B/Eads

    I agree

    I've been hearing that 'the economy is bad' , 'mass layoffs'.  since 2008

    every. single. year.



    Certs: GSTRT, GPEN, GCFA, CISM, CRISC, RHCE

    Learn GRC! GRC Mastery : https://grcmastery.com 

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    JDMurrayJDMurray Admin Posts: 13,039 Admin
    Businesses were not getting rid of people during the COVID years (2020-2022) for fear of a shortage of job candidates in the future. Now that we are past that fear, businesses are getting rid of the "fat" and "deadwood" that collected over that time. Nothing puts money back on the books faster than reducing headcount; that's just the way business accounting works. I also think that X (nee Twitter) surviving after Elon laid-off 80% of its workforce showed the money that could be saved when a business rethinks what and how it does business.
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    JoJoCal19JoJoCal19 Mod Posts: 2,835 Mod
    JDMurray said:
    Businesses were not getting rid of people during the COVID years (2020-2022) for fear of a shortage of job candidates in the future. Now that we are past that fear, businesses are getting rid of the "fat" and "deadwood" that collected over that time. Nothing puts money back on the books faster than reducing headcount; that's just the way business accounting works. I also think that X (nee Twitter) surviving after Elon laid-off 80% of its workforce showed the money that could be saved when a business rethinks what and how it does business.
    This is an underappreciated point. People typically point to the aforementioned things with regards to layoffs, but I think this one is huge. Shareholders and boards of every company while not seeing under the hood, from the outside they see that Twitter nixed 80% (or whatever the ridiculous number was) of employees and it hasn't crashed. So of course they are looking at their respective companies and demanding massive cuts as they feel their companies would be just fine as well. 
    Have: CISSP, CISM, CISA, CRISC, eJPT, GCIA, GSEC, CCSP, CCSK, AWS CSAA, AWS CCP, OCI Foundations Associate, ITIL-F, MS Cyber Security - USF, BSBA - UF, MSISA - WGU
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    beadsbeads Member Posts: 1,531 ■■■■■■■■■□
    This site is a recent addition to my monthly checks and research. Layoffs dot For Your Information below. 2024 has already seen more than 34,000 layoffs and counting.


    - B/Eads

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    JDMurrayJDMurray Admin Posts: 13,039 Admin
    They don't seem to list the job roles that are being laid-off. What percentage of each lay-off is cybersecurity people?
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    DatabaseHeadDatabaseHead Member Posts: 2,753 ■■■■■■■■■■
    edited February 15
    beads said:
    This site is a recent addition to my monthly checks and research. Layoffs dot For Your Information below. 2024 has already seen more than 34,000 layoffs and counting.


    - B/Eads


    SAP 8000 since Jan 2024.  Wow.  

    I've been aggressively saving cash directly into my money market for the last 18 months.  This is in addition to maxing my 401k.  And paying off all debt, except for my wife's student loan......   :/
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    volfkhatvolfkhat Member Posts: 1,055 ■■■■■■■■□□
    DatabaseHead said:
    SAP 8000 since Jan 2024.  Wow.  

    I've been aggressively saving cash directly into my money market for the last 18 months.  This is in addition to maxing my 401k.  And paying off all debt, except for my
    wife's student loan......   :/

    I would honestly be happy for some extended time off lately  :D:D
    but the Bank keeps extending my contract, and i keep sticking around.

    Golden Handcuffs stink!
    lol
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    UnixGuyUnixGuy Mod Posts: 4,565 Mod
    JDMurray said:
    They don't seem to list the job roles that are being laid-off. What percentage of each lay-off is cybersecurity people?
    This is an important point


    my employer laid off 200ish people last year, they didn't say who was laid off, but i noticed a lot were in HR and 'branding', very few were in cyber



    Certs: GSTRT, GPEN, GCFA, CISM, CRISC, RHCE

    Learn GRC! GRC Mastery : https://grcmastery.com 

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    volfkhatvolfkhat Member Posts: 1,055 ■■■■■■■■□□
    edited May 8
    Still No Recession yet (in my neck of the woods).


    But then again, we are still 6 months out from the November vote.

    Maybe jerome.Powell is waiting until AFTER the Election before HIKING those interest rates??
    LOL

    That may Not go well.

    How's everyone else fairing in the job market?
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    E Double UE Double U Member Posts: 2,232 ■■■■■■■■■■
    volfkhat said:


    How's everyone else fairing in the job market?
    I joined AWS in 2022 and just changed roles at the top of the year. So far so good over here.
    Alphabet soup from (ISC)2, ISACA, GIAC, EC-Council, Microsoft, ITIL, Cisco, Scrum, CompTIA, AWS
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