Career "cloud-proofing" for the established systems engineer

I know there are a lot of varying opinions on what "cloud" is and the impact it will have on all of us downstream. However, I don't think that we can argue there is a definate trend toward consolidation and has been for some time. Consolidation of server hardware (most of us are well on our way), consolidation of services (examples - moving from decentralized to centralized application infrastructure in either a self-hosted or public-hosted datacenters), shifting management of application infrastructure from internal resources to a cloud-based service, the movement from traditional desktop/laptop computing to hosted VDI, companies relying more on outside solution providers for implementation of services, and so on.

I know the argument that often is presented is that companies will always need user support, will continue to need people to administer the network operating system, provision Exchange mailboxes, etc. However, I think roles like the ones I have been working for the past several years, ones that are less "day-to-day operations" and have more of an infrastructure design/engineering slant, are beginning to be squeezed out from corporate IT. I saw this at my last company when messaging services for 23 distinct business units shifted toward a shared infrastructure (and only the morons at HQ were given a chance to land the "strategic" engineer/architect positions in the shared environment despite their environment before the migration being among the smallest and least complex in the organization... I hear that entire situation is a real "cluster" now). I see it with the massive growth in consulting services for infrastructure virtualization, migration of more apps to the private cloud, and the trend toward commoditization of more infrastructure (i.e., VMware NSX). I see companies being less paranoid about having some of their data hosted in a shared envionment.

I see corporations needing less guys like me (or, the current state of "me") in the future. So, I either need to further differentiate myself to stay in a infrastructure engineering role (and probably be prepared to leave my small town and move to a bigger market), be ready in the future to work a straight admin/operations role, or work toward shifting roles entirely. I think database roles will continue to be safe for the long term, because most companies will want to have their own DBA's, even if the infrastructure is consolidated elsewhere. I also think something adjacent like IT audit will be a very safe and potentially lucrative longer term. IT is in't getting smaller because companies are consolidating, and every company has individual audit needs. I think I saw 15-20% projected growth for this role for the next decade.

Am I totally off base here?

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LarryDaMan

Great topic. There is a major shift taking place, and I imagine some people will be left behind. Small-to-medium firms especially are going to squeeze out these engineer roles which you mention, and on demand auto-provisioning in the cloud may even sap some day-to-day administrator workforce.

Even in auditing (for government systems), we are starting to review and accept previously conducted FedRamp assessments instead of conducting our own (on cloud stuff).

it_consultant

You are not off base, my next job will probably be for a cloud company, I have a few in mind already.

QHalo

I'm experiencing something similar here at my position. We're seriously considering pushing one of our most important, if not the most important system to a cloud provider. Their product is simply amazing though and with an IT shop as understaffed as we are, could really see this actually happening. As someone that designed the current infrastructure from a server/virtualization/storage perspective, pushing something this important to the cloud has me wondering as well.

That's not to say that we won't have stuff that has to be maintained, and our CIO is a guy that sees it as an opportunity to relieve us of maintaining a system that could free us up for other things, but it's something I think about every so often. What I keep coming back to is either moving somewhere larger where the push is quite a bit slower, move to a provider who these guys are pushing to, or consulting. I'd love to get into something dealing with Big Data and Hadoop. I'm just not sure if I'm interested in starting my career over as that's not something you just jump into. I don't see that stuff going anywhere and its becoming more and more important. VMware was discussing virtualizing Big Data servers in their keynote.

So no, I can't say you're totally off base as it's something I think about as well. Audit and security are other great places as well and would go hand in hand with any of those pushes. Either that or management...

pram

I'd say an good way to future proof your career is to master a language like perl/python/anything really. The last interviews I've had all expected a fair grasp on programming. I got my current job because I made a simple example php/sql website faster than the competition. My other experience seemed almost secondary

I've been asked to make fizz bang, make a complicated bash script, perl questions etc etc. They were all for linux sysadmin and devops roles. It's getting increasingly difficult to find jobs that don't have this expectation, I assume it's a trend that will only continue.

ITMonkey

From a SMB perspective, I suspect that there is a career path in being the one to take small and medium sized companies into the Cloud.

ptilsen

pram wrote: »

I've been asked to make fizz bang, make a complicated bash script, perl questions etc etc. They were all for linux sysadmin and devops roles. It's getting increasingly difficult to find jobs that don't have this expectation, I assume it's a trend that will only continue.

Almost all of the Linux admin and devops roles I look at ask for a computer science degree, extremely heavy polyglot scripting, or both.

This has been slower in other areas, but I'm seeing more of it. More and more Windows engineer positions want PowerShell and/or VBscript or even non-Windows scripting experience. In fact, I usually don't look twice at the ones that don't ask for it. Job security is increasingly questionable for a point-and-click position.

On cloud and outsourced services in general, I think the trend is definitely towards either becoming the cloud or being replaced by it. You can still do this within a company, but for many organizations it's making more and more sense to make infrastructure someone else's problem and pay them for it. So the most obvious thing you can do is to jump ship to a cloud provider, consultancy, MSP, whatever. Alternatively, making a strong push towards an internal IT service model that essentially mimics a service provider is your best bet. As far as skills, I don't think those have changed that much outside of scripting and automation. Even on the topic of specializing vs. generalizing, I'm still seeing just as many generalist roles as specialist, if not more. So storage/virtualization/server/email/etc. skills and certifications are still a good thing. I think it's more about finding the right organization to work for.

Sounds Good

ITMonkey wrote: »

From a SMB perspective, I suspect that there is a career path in being the one to take small and medium sized companies into the Cloud.

Absolutely. Getting into something like AWS is a good head start.

blargoe

ITMonkey wrote: »

From a SMB perspective, I suspect that there is a career path in being the one to take small and medium sized companies into the Cloud.

I agree, at least for a while. At some point, that type of work would have to dwindle as startup SMBs would begin life in a mostly cloud environment and the remainder would gradually move there.

blargoe

ptilsen wrote: »

On cloud and outsourced services in general, I think the trend is definitely towards either becoming the cloud or being replaced by it. You can still do this within a company, but for many organizations it's making more and more sense to make infrastructure someone else's problem and pay them for it. So the most obvious thing you can do is to jump ship to a cloud provider, consultancy, MSP, whatever. Alternatively, making a strong push towards an internal IT service model that essentially mimics a service provider is your best bet. As far as skills, I don't think those have changed that much outside of scripting and automation. Even on the topic of specializing vs. generalizing, I'm still seeing just as many generalist roles as specialist, if not more. So storage/virtualization/server/email/etc. skills and certifications are still a good thing. I think it's more about finding the right organization to work for.

Agreed.

010101

Let's say the following happens:
1. Everyone hosts nearly all servers in the cloud
2. Most everyone serves up Desktops from the cloud (hosted VDI).
3. Most everyone uses cloud based border routers and firewalls.

What does this mean to various IT jobs?
- Pen-Testers and security guys are out of work. Maybe 20% survive
- HelpDesk staff, out of work
- Network Engineers (WAN/Firewalls/routers), out of work
- Systems Engineers (Servers, SANS, etc), out of word
- Database guys, out of work
- Consultants (install SANS, Citrix, VMWare, Firewalls, VOIP etc for clients), out of work

Out of everyone above, OF COURSE some will stay.
Maybe 20%, maybe 50%.
But of the ones laid off, a percentage will re-tool with aggression and will fight for the remaining jobs.
A CCIE could become a basic requirement.
A masters degree could become a basic requirement.
With TONS of people willing to do the work, pay could take a massive hit.

I would say programming jobs are safe, but the remaining US based gigs will be fought over by the unemployeed people above.

IMO, we could be on the edge of a cliff for IT as a profession.

Who thinks I'm way off base?
Who can paint a prettier picture?

fredrikjj

What's a cloud based border router?

ajs1976

010101 wrote: »

Who thinks I'm way off base?
Who can paint a prettier picture?

I think that view is a little extreme. The cloud will / is having an impact and we need to adapt, but I don't think it will be to that extent. Remember about 10 years ago, when ALL of the IT jobs were going to get outsourced? That model didn't live up to all the hype and didn't work for everyone.

010101

fredrikjj wrote: »

What's a cloud based border router?

I didn't get the details, but it seemed kind of interesting. I guess the ISP would be handing off a private IP and the public IP would terminate on their equiment?

ajs1976 wrote: »

I think that view is a little extreme. The cloud will / is having an impact and we need to adapt, but I don't think it will be to that extent. Remember about 10 years ago, when ALL of the IT jobs were going to get outsourced? That model didn't live up to all the hype and didn't work for everyone.

Good point...
If we went off predictions from 5-10 years ago, there would be no computer programmers in the US.

.

BGraves

I think the big thing comes down to, who has your data and what can they do with it?
Companies may be hesitant to let their data outside their own borders and with good reason I imagine.
Cloud based data storage is generally not looked quite the same when storing a companies data as it is with storing say my...photo album of frogs. I'm fine with other people seeing those leggy bandits, maybe not so much with my companies financial/production/proprietary information.

However, cloud based services are quite useful....Cisco Meraki has made our Wireless infrastructure downright silly easy and convenient. Haven't looked at their cloud based switches/routers. Cloud based services/SAAS all make life easier, but there will always be problems and technical people that will need to fix those problems. I agree though, we will see a shift downward in the amount of those people needed (unless these services open up opportunities to smaller businesses that previously couldn't accomplish certain technical projects due to lack of $ or ease of access, in which case you might see the market open up there in small amounts for displaced individuals.)

I would say the biggest threat to sys admin jobs are the consultants out there. My employer will outsource the highly technical projects to a consulting firm, spending a good amount of $, removing my ability to learn this and produce the same result. The perceived benefit is risk transference from in house staff to an outside organization, and technical expertise of the consultant...but really...I'm the one that suffers in some cases (Unless it's AutoCad, in which case consult away!)

At any rate, the goal should be to continue improving/learning as an IT Professional yes? So there will always be opportunity to learn new technology and make $ doing so.

blargoe

010101 wrote: »

Let's say the following happens:
1. Everyone hosts nearly all servers in the cloud
2. Most everyone serves up Desktops from the cloud (hosted VDI).
3. Most everyone uses cloud based border routers and firewalls.

What does this mean to various IT jobs?
- Pen-Testers and security guys are out of work. Maybe 20% survive
- HelpDesk staff, out of work
- Network Engineers (WAN/Firewalls/routers), out of work
- Systems Engineers (Servers, SANS, etc), out of word
- Database guys, out of work
- Consultants (install SANS, Citrix, VMWare, Firewalls, VOIP etc for clients), out of work

Out of everyone above, OF COURSE some will stay.
Maybe 20%, maybe 50%.
But of the ones laid off, a percentage will re-tool with aggression and will fight for the remaining jobs.
A CCIE could become a basic requirement.
A masters degree could become a basic requirement.
With TONS of people willing to do the work, pay could take a massive hit.

I would say programming jobs are safe, but the remaining US based gigs will be fought over by the unemployeed people above.

IMO, we could be on the edge of a cliff for IT as a profession.

Who thinks I'm way off base?
Who can paint a prettier picture?

Many companies are going to want to have their own security guys, as they have fiduciary responsibilty to ensure their (or their customer's) data is secure. So they would want to retain staff to validate access to "their" resources is locked down.

Some of the administration of the routers/firewalls/WAN might be outsourced, but even if it is all virtualized, that doesn't mean there won't be any need for someone to manage that company's day to day network admin needs.

Same for day to day server and SAN Administration.

For day to day operator/admin level work, there will still be a need for guys who can provide your business more agility than a managed services provider can offer.

The consultant/engineer/architect guys are the ones who need to worry IMO (as I stated earlier).

I'm speculating that the DBA role may be the last "safe" infrastructure role when it's all said and done. Whatever situation the company chooses for hosting its services and infrastructure, they are always going to want to maintain control of their own data.

dspielman

In the SMB market companies are more keen to the idea of having their data in the cloud. As this practice becomes more and more common, it will eventually become common practice in companies of all sizes. "Old school" System Admins better brush up on their certs and really look at their skillset and make sure they are not simply a 1 trick pony.

MrAgent

Keep in mind as cloud computing gets more traction and grows, cloud providers will need more engineers and admins to handle the growth. Its not like the jobs are just going away, they are just transitioning as well.

210mike

I see the 'cloud' as just another tool in the Sys Admin tool belt. If you keep up with new technology you'll be just fine. We're not going anywhere, what we do might change, but they'll always need us.

Verities

MrAgent wrote: »

Keep in mind as cloud computing gets more traction and grows, cloud providers will need more engineers and admins to handle the growth. Its not like the jobs are just going away, they are just transitioning as well.

This^. Have you seen how many job postings there are for "cloud systems engineer, analyst, etc"? Go to Amazon.com and look at their postings. They have tons and better yet they're all over the world. As more complex technology arises, streamlines things, and makes things easier for every day users, they become more difficult to manage. Jobs for IT professionals will never go away completely. However, if you want to have a lasting career in IT, you better keep up with technology (being a fast learner helps) or you're going to become obsolete.

010101

MrAgent wrote: »

Keep in mind as cloud computing gets more traction and grows, cloud providers will need more engineers and admins to handle the growth. Its not like the jobs are just going away, they are just transitioning as well.

I don't know that I agree with this.
Drive around, every small building you see has at least 2 network admins in it.
Every large building has several. There are MILLIONS of network admins in the world.
Just googing, I see 1.7million MCP holders alone.

I know Amazon will hire a bunch, but how many? 300? 1,000? MAYBE 10,000(doubt that many)?

networker050184

I disagree that every small building has at least two admins. There are lots companies that keep no IT people on staff or use managed services. Even more companies use a centralized IT model with no admins at remote locations. I think you are vastly exaggerating the numbers.

ptilsen

Google's still "bigger" than Amazon. Both even hire Windows engineers. Microsoft is a player as well. Plenty of smaller places exist. My ex-boss joined a small IAAS/SAAS provider in the twin cities that services only a certain, niche sector. I see cloud engineer postings (not always with that title, but with that role) plenty for non-public-cloud providers, large and small. Amazon is just a really good example. I do see a significant shift of infrastructure engineers of all disciplines to certain areas, especially Seattle and Socal, but also to D.C. and Nova, maybe some other areas.

Amazon specifically is hiring quite a variety in quite many geographical areas. Just go do a job search. I tried to do a systems engineer search, and found it was nearly impossible without narrowing to specific cities (not metros -- cities proper). We are talking in excess of ten infrastructure engineers, architecture, analysts, and admins of different specialities. Google and MS are similar. Plus, even PAAS and IAAS aren't really a "let the provider do everything model." Setting up a full infrastructure on Azure or AWS actually requires quite a bit of knowledge. I would argue more than setting up a typical SMB solution. Only so much is ever abstracted from the solution engineer/architect.

All that being said, there certainly is an economy of scale being implemented, and we're definitely going to see some demand shifts. I honestly think it's too early to tell where they will really be. Certainly, low-level support is oversaturated, but what of the various infrastructure specialties? I have a hard time looking at any one and saying "that will be gone in five years." Maybe we see a 5% or 10% decline over the next five years, although more likely we just see it stop growing so quickly.

I don't see it at all with any aspect of security. Security is not going anywhere fast. At most, the "cloud" movement is making security achievable to the point that more organizations will actually do something serious about it.

dave330i

System engineers will still be around. Windows desktop on the other hand is questionable. In the age of VDI, the Windows desktop isn't needed. What the customer cares about are applications, mobility and data security. All you need is a light OS providing an access portal. Google Android is the most popular OS for smartphones and has a nice share of the tablet market. Why not put Android on your desktop?

Qord

Excuse my possible ignorance, but isn't “cloud” just marketing jargon? I mean, I've got a "cloud" at home with my lab setup... I completely understand the potential impacts of virtualization, but we've been hearing about cloud taking our jobs away for quite some time and I’m not quite sure I see it happening yet. Definitely not in my area at least, but I haven’t noticed a downward trend in job postings along the East coast either. In passively looking for any potential new positions, I regularly check Boston, NY, NC, NJ…anywhere along the coast that’s not DC, and I don’t see the numbers of job postings dwindling yet. The only thing I see affecting hiring is budget concerns, not migration to the cloud. Although, I have no window into the corporate world, mainly just small-business and edu exposure.

Perhaps the “cloud-proofing” needs to be more about general job security, and not necessarily changing job skills. Personally, I know my job is more secure than may others around me. I work for a fiscally responsible, non-profit community college that values its employees, not the bottom line. While the pay is not on par with comparable positions at other organizations, one of the biggest reasons people tend to stay here is because of the job security here. In my three years here I've looked at several open positions locally that wound up being cut after someone was hired because of budget cutbacks.

dave330i wrote: »

Why not put Android on your desktop?

Same reason they won’t go with Linux. Too difficult/different/other-non-accurate-adjective for the employees to learn and IT to administer, even if it is essentially a dumb terminal….which is another conversation entirely. There’s a LOT of money to be saved if companies would just stop paying M$ licensing fees, but most folks are afraid of a move like that.

I'm not sure how folks feel about data like this, but here's some encouraging numbers from the BLS:
Employment by occupation
Industries with the fastest growing and most rapidly declining output

Generally speaking, they expect (what seems like) all IT jobs to increase in numbers through 2020.

Verities

@Ptilsen: Good point, a quick search on Google yielded quite a few search results for smaller managed service providers around my area. They seem to be springing up as more people buy into the "cloud" model.

@Qord: Yes it is a marketing term and a successful one at that. The "cloud" is just hosted services at a managed service provider's datacenter(s). They use virtualization technologies to maximize their hardware pontential, by creating pools of resources that are readily available for provisioning. These service providers will always need people to manage the systems. As for Job security, it is usually higher at non-profits but some just can't work there due to the little amount of money they pay. I've worked for 2 different non-profits and probably could have stayed at either until I retired, but I can assure I wasn't getting paid enough for the work I was doing. Additionally, you don't really get promotions unless someone leaves their position or retires (even when you get promoted to say a system admin or network admin position, you're still known as "the guy who fixes the Microsoft Outlook issues"). However, in non-profits you usually know everyone you work with, which isn't the same in for-profits (which are usually larger businesses).

dave330i

Qord wrote: »

Same reason they won’t go with Linux. Too difficult/different/other-non-accurate-adjective for the employees to learn and IT to administer, even if it is essentially a dumb terminal….which is another conversation entirely. There’s a LOT of money to be saved if companies would just stop paying M$ licensing fees, but most folks are afraid of a move like that.

You missed the point of Android.

pcgizzmo

What we are seeing is the circular motion of "What comes around goes around" I swear the more I see the more I think we all live inside a computer program someone wrote.

Don't forget that companies have already gone from centralized to distributed computing once before and now we are seeing the swing back the other way. Will everything be centralized at some point? Will we go back to distributed computing at some point? Maybe.

The one thing I do know is the more things change the more they stay the same. There is nothing new only changes of things that have already been. New takes on an old story.