Incoming RECESSION?
Comments
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TechGromit Member Posts: 2,156 ■■■■■■■■■□TechGromit said:E Double U said:In The Netherlands there appears to be more vacancies than people to fill them. I just received a job offer last week and my current employer has trouble keeping people. Just so many opportunities available.
Still searching for the corner in a round room. -
volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□TechGromit said:
Just a follow up to this point. Once of my co-workers who jump ship for more money at another smaller company, seven months later they laid off his entire department. He said when he was applying for positions, employers received hundreds of applications per job, (and he has a current CISSP cert) where as it was under ten before. He did end up landing another job a few months later, don't know if he took a pay cut, but it's only a contract job that will last till the end of the year. He's seriously looking to get back in with my company. I say you can't put a price on job stability.
"job stability" can be an illusion.
I actually prefer contracting
I've more than doubled my salary since the Pandemic, and i like the variety that comes with it.
Plus it motivates me to keep my skills up-to-date -
DatabaseHead Member Posts: 2,760 ■■■■■■■■■■It's here.
HOPE
Housing - sales the lowest in 25 years (NAHB) Recession Levels
Orders - way down in manufacturing (ISM) Recession Levels
Profits - Companies are showing record low profits, YOY (Earnings)
Employment - next domino to fall. (Claims)
I believe we are coming into a huge recession. What's really startling is lendering. 70% of our GDP comes off of lending. Cash reserves for families are at an all time low, meaning they can no longer borrow. Coupled with that, you have the second biggest banking collapse in the US history so now stricter lending regulations in place and an overwhelming sentiment of not wanting to borrow / take loands.
Look for companies who are insulated.
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shochan Member Posts: 1,014 ■■■■■■■■□□You mean, incoming INFLATION & its staying WAY too long!CompTIA A+, Network+, i-Net+, MCP 70-210, CNA v5, Server+, Security+, Cloud+, CySA+, ISC² CC, ISC² SSCP
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JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminInflation will naturally recede when consumers decide to stop buying goods and services at inflated prices. While consumers are willing pay ridiculously-high prices for food, energy, clothing, services, etc. prices will stay high. ("What the market will bear" is a tenet of the Free Market.) Getting the consumer use to new price-points is what big corporations periodically try to do; this time around they have the backing of the US Federal Reserve--the government agency whose primary purpose is to prevent inflation. Why is nobody in the Press yellin' at Yellen and Powell about inflation? An economic conspiracy?
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volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□it's 2024!!
FINALLY
How are you guys holding up?
Is the RECESSION here for you all?
or are we still talking/waiting for it to arrive?
Any predictions for the new year? -
JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminIf your definition of recession is "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth" then nobody in the USA has seen that since the first half of 2022. I do favor moving towards recession conditions as a way to slow down the Biden Inflation Plan.
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beads Member Posts: 1,533 ■■■■■■■■■□IT created 287,000 jobs in 2022 while only creating 701 in 2023 according to WSJ last week. This is normal. IT tends to first over hire believing our own hype. Keep those workers too long, then panic, releasing much of the dead weight as quickly as possible. We see this once a decade and will likely continue to do so. I first heard this analogy back in the 1980s when we had "too many CS grads" when I graduated. This is nothing new.- B/Eads
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UnixGuy Mod Posts: 4,570 Modbeads said:IT created 287,000 jobs in 2022 while only creating 701 in 2023 according to WSJ last week. This is normal. IT tends to first over hire believing our own hype. Keep those workers too long, then panic, releasing much of the dead weight as quickly as possible. We see this once a decade and will likely continue to do so. I first heard this analogy back in the 1980s when we had "too many CS grads" when I graduated. This is nothing new.- B/EadsI agree
I've been hearing that 'the economy is bad' , 'mass layoffs'. since 2008
every. single. year.
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JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminBusinesses were not getting rid of people during the COVID years (2020-2022) for fear of a shortage of job candidates in the future. Now that we are past that fear, businesses are getting rid of the "fat" and "deadwood" that collected over that time. Nothing puts money back on the books faster than reducing headcount; that's just the way business accounting works. I also think that X (nee Twitter) surviving after Elon laid-off 80% of its workforce showed the money that could be saved when a business rethinks what and how it does business.
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JoJoCal19 Mod Posts: 2,835 ModJDMurray said:Businesses were not getting rid of people during the COVID years (2020-2022) for fear of a shortage of job candidates in the future. Now that we are past that fear, businesses are getting rid of the "fat" and "deadwood" that collected over that time. Nothing puts money back on the books faster than reducing headcount; that's just the way business accounting works. I also think that X (nee Twitter) surviving after Elon laid-off 80% of its workforce showed the money that could be saved when a business rethinks what and how it does business.Have: CISSP, CISM, CISA, CRISC, eJPT, GCIA, GSEC, CCSP, CCSK, AWS CSAA, AWS CCP, OCI Foundations Associate, ITIL-F, MS Cyber Security - USF, BSBA - UF, MSISA - WGU
Currently Working On: Python, OSCP Prep
Next Up: OSCP
Studying: Code Academy (Python), Bash Scripting, Virtual Hacking Lab Coursework -
beads Member Posts: 1,533 ■■■■■■■■■□This site is a recent addition to my monthly checks and research. Layoffs dot For Your Information below. 2024 has already seen more than 34,000 layoffs and counting.- B/Eads
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JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminThey don't seem to list the job roles that are being laid-off. What percentage of each lay-off is cybersecurity people?
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DatabaseHead Member Posts: 2,760 ■■■■■■■■■■beads said:This site is a recent addition to my monthly checks and research. Layoffs dot For Your Information below. 2024 has already seen more than 34,000 layoffs and counting.- B/Eads
SAP 8000 since Jan 2024. Wow.
I've been aggressively saving cash directly into my money market for the last 18 months. This is in addition to maxing my 401k. And paying off all debt, except for my wife's student loan......
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volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□
I've been aggressively saving cash directly into my money market for the last 18 months. This is in addition to maxing my 401k. And paying off all debt, except for my
wife's student loan......
I would honestly be happy for some extended time off lately
but the Bank keeps extending my contract, and i keep sticking around.
Golden Handcuffs stink!
lol -
UnixGuy Mod Posts: 4,570 ModJDMurray said:They don't seem to list the job roles that are being laid-off. What percentage of each lay-off is cybersecurity people?
my employer laid off 200ish people last year, they didn't say who was laid off, but i noticed a lot were in HR and 'branding', very few were in cyber
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volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□Still No Recession yet (in my neck of the woods).
But then again, we are still 6 months out from the November vote.
Maybe jerome.Powell is waiting until AFTER the Election before HIKING those interest rates??
LOL
That may Not go well.
How's everyone else fairing in the job market? -
E Double U Member Posts: 2,239 ■■■■■■■■■■volfkhat said:
How's everyone else fairing in the job market?Alphabet soup from (ISC)2, ISACA, GIAC, EC-Council, Microsoft, ITIL, Cisco, Scrum, CompTIA, AWS -
volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□Whelp...
1) Unemployment Rate continues inching upward:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/02/nx-s1-5060216/jobs-labor-employers-hiring-economy-recession
~Granted, the numbers are B.S.... but the overall 'trend' has some value.
2) Stock Market is Down this week (2% - 3% percent). but it may just be a Slight correction; maybe too early to draw any conclusions.
3) It's an election year... so rate cuts are most likely guaranteed.
What do yall think? -
JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminYou can't believe Federal government numbers published in election years, as they are usually tailored to favor the incumbents. The US stock market is presently very overvalued (thanks to nVidia, Microsoft, etc.) and always stalls or drops in the Summer. We saw the stock market surge when Trump was elected in 2016 and that should happen again in about 100 days.
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volfkhat Member Posts: 1,075 ■■■■■■■■□□JDMurray said:We saw the stock market surge when Trump was elected in 2016 and that should happen again in about 100 days.
I wouldn't be so sure about that
With Joementia finally out the picture.... the once inevitable suddenly became a Race.
At this point...
i think Mr. Orange needs the Economy/Stock martket to implode (ala Fall of 2008) in order to squeak out a win in November. -
DatabaseHead Member Posts: 2,760 ■■■■■■■■■■Jobs are down in most sectors. Depending on who the economist is, but most are saying recession from what I can tell.
The model I look at is the HOPE model. Housing, Orders (New Orders think manufacturing), Profits (all companies not just the big tech giants) and finally employment which is down in most sectors, except for construction and a few others. -
JDMurray Admin Posts: 13,101 AdminThat and also: "US benchmark equity indexes were higher ahead of Thursday's close after the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points."
Meaning a 0.25% decrease in interest rates is encouraging people to buy more stocks. -
beads Member Posts: 1,533 ■■■■■■■■■□JDMurray said:They don't seem to list the job roles that are being laid-off. What percentage of each lay-off is cybersecurity people?JD wants deep analysis for a free site. The layoffs listed are for IT in general, not security. Given the huge drop-off of IT positions available, is obvious we are and have been in a tech recession since 2022. I get contacted almost daily from someone looking for work. Even developers are begging for work.Security is and has been rapidly shrinking.