cloud computing and the future of the IT industry

I have been reading a lot about cloud computing lately, and it sounds like something that will really take off in the next couple of years.

This worries me because the idea of cloud or grid computing eliminates the need for data centers which in turn eliminates the need for sys admins/support staff. I fear that a lot of jobs will either be eliminated or they will be lower paying.

Does anyone agree with this? Should I be looking into a career change or is their a way to benefit from "the cloud"?

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Comments

HeroPsycho

There will be datacenters. Someone has to run the servers that cloud computing services runs on. They will just be BIG HONKING datacenters!

This will make IT more efficient as you won't need people to manage datacenters within businesses as you do now, so some of those jobs will be eliminated. But jobs working in these big honking datacenters will be created.

Your ability to work with large scale datacenters, users, data, system management, etc. will be increasingly important. Look at technologies like virtualization, advanced storage, bulk data manipulation to efficiently get stuff done (database querying, scripting, etc.), monitoring solutions, etc. to increase in demand. Think big, and plan to develop your skills accordingly.

eMeS

I agree completely with HeroPsycho, and in fact, I've seen this pattern repeatedly in the 20 years that I've been in IT.

When I first started working in IT in 1988, client/server and pcs were going to "eliminate datacenters", make mainframes obsolete, etc...

In fact, the big term in vogue back then was "lights out data center". Does anyone remember a company called StorageTek and a product known as a "Silo". I'm sure this is still around in one form or another, but basically it was a big robotic tape system...Supposedly you could eliminate alot of the support staff etc.. and run your data center in the dark...without any people.

I would say exactly the opposite happened. Progress forward in technology tends to eliminate or push further down the chain some jobs, while creating more complex jobs and a need for highly skilled people to understand and manage the new technology. Mainframes are still around, are faster than ever, and are an increasing part of IBM's revenue picture. Companies have so much invested that it's often not cost-effective to walk away; it makes more sense to wrapper and layer the proven investment with new technologies that can carry it to the next level....

And then there is the whole problem of some new technologies promising more than they actually deliver, but vaporware is really a different discussion altogether.

Actually, there is an author that talks about progress in technology and how that affects jobs, humanity, etc... If you get a chance, check out Ray Kurzewil's The Age of Spiritual Machines or The Singularity is Near.

Cloud computing is really nothing new, nor does it mean we'll all be unemployed soon. What it does mean is exactly what HeroPsycho said, your skills become increasingly important and you will have to be continuously planning, continuously educating, and continuously improving yourself.

MS

blargoe

Maybe YOUR datacenter would be gone, but there'd probably still be nearly as many datacenter jobs. Don't look at these "next big thing" articles as doom and gloom, look at it to shape your 5-year plan for adding to your skills.

Slowhand

When I see things like this, I have only one thing to say:

No matter what Wired says, we are not all going to be replaced by robots that will do our laundry, go to work for us, take our kids to school, wash our naughty bits, and do all this tomorrow. Nor will your company hold staff meetings in SecondLife. . . ever.

Things like cloud computing and quantum computing aren't going to be here tomorrow. They'll be coming over long, ever-changing periods of time where there are umpteen million median-stages, all of which will make these radical changes seem like a natural progression; (with the exception of a jump every now and then, which will seem like the reinvention of fire). Don't worry too much about what the ultra-trendy new buzz-term is and look at the industry as it is, compare that to what's being developed, and you'll have a pretty good idea of where you'll be tomorrow. Learn the basics, get good at what you do, and remember that big changes don't happen overnight. They happen over long periods of time by virtue of the hard work and brilliance of people like the fine members of TechExams.net and the like. (Not including the countless hours these jokers spend playing World of Goo, but that's neither here nor there.)

After all, we are the realists that make and/or maintain all those cool toys for the thirty-something yuppie liberal-arts majors with an obsessive interest in shiny new computers and addiction to over-priced lattes made at "their Starbucks" to go ga-ga over.

Slowhand

In case I seem a little more jaded today than usual, it's because I've been catching up on watching episodes of Zero Punctuation.* I typed the last post at about six times my normal speed.

*(That, and I suffered through four years of getting Wired for free by some horrific chance in a hellish global lottery. They made great bathroom-emergency reading, and even better toilet paper when crumpled up properly.)

dynamik

I wish someone would replace my wife with a robot. Some chores might actually get done, and we'd probably have more satisfying *ahem* conversations.

astorrs

"cloud" = "fog"

nuff said

Kaminsky

Slowhand wrote: »

When I see things like this, I have only one thing to say:

No matter what Wired says, we are not all going to be replaced by robots that will do our laundry, go to work for us, take our kids to school, wash our naughty bits, and do all this tomorrow. Nor will your company hold staff meetings in SecondLife. . . ever.

haha ... so true ...

Slowhand wrote: »

In case I seem a little more jaded today than usual,

Nope ! Your spot on !

I work in a very large data centre. The main one I look after has over 4500 42u cabs. We saw that cloud computing thing on the news and first thing we all thought was ... "wow that's a tiny data centre. They want to take over the world with that little thing ... ? /chuckle " ... It was usefull in explaining to my mrs and friends the kind of place I work in. When you try and describe it, people's eyes just glaze over as they have nothing to compare it with in their experience.

I do however agree that a lot of major IT will be "outsourced" into data centres sooner rather than later simply because they offer superior value for money to the client.

DCs are usually run by big IT companies who have top draw IT staff both in qualies and experience. They also have top draw policies and procedures and large shift working teams in place for incident management, change control, development, deployment, project management, service improvement, etc, etc that cover every aspect of delivering an IT outsourced service. This allows them to offer very attractive and incredibly high SLAs (3 hour fix for major incidents typically) and breach payments back to the customer that can reach 10s of thousands per minute until service is resumed.

The client doesn't have to worry about their IT infrastructure except for PC equipment and that for any other services they may need. IT staffing and especially ongoing training costs are negligable and, most importantly, they don't have to worry about the ongoing day to day running of their service and dealing with all the seperate annoyances the IT company can take care of. Financially, it's a win win situation for the client. If you were the IT director or the Chief Exec and were thinking long term..... What would you decide?

If you think your tax, government, military, pension, policing, customs and excise, vehicle management IT systems are currently run by a teams of dodgy looking geeks still trying to grow facial hair, you are greatly mistaken. Outsourcing these major IT projects is happening all over the world, right now. Today I finished installing fibre links that will bring online number plate recognition to one of this countries major ports and faulted out some major flaws in the current infrastructure servicing the coutry's vehicle licensing service. No joke or embelishment. With an audience such as the members of these forums, I would not dare blag.

So where does that leave your average IT person in a small IT dept ? pretty much untouched and business as usuall. Outsourcing can only really be considered for the larger businesses and organisations so the smaller and medium scale IT services will be pretty much unnafected by this.... If it's not at least double digit millions for the contract, the vast majority of outsourcing companies wouldn't touch it.... no profit ! The coms kit and yearly line rental to the ISP I put in today was £35,000.... Two or three of these a week is typical for my job in coms.

However, when you get higher up in your experience and certs, although I know it goes against the grain, you should really apply for these larger IT companies.. The money is typically better, training is nowhere near as good but the scale and equipment of the things you get to play with is awsome. Have you ever seen a 40 row of 42U cabs each with about 100 500g disk arrays all pooled ? I still get caught peering into the 1500 dat tape robot backup cubes.. wiz .. wiz ... weee ! so cute... All completely automatic.

The 4 days on 4 days off shiftwork for an extra 20%-30% salary is really, really sweet once you get used to it. Once we dropped the kids off to school inthe morning, me and the mrs have the rest of the day to ourselves until pick up time. Since our eldest is almost 10, it has helped rekindle why we got together in the firstplace. Also, they have sites all over the world and the internal recruitment system lets you apply to any job if your considering changing continent. Each year you get an appraisal where you can express how you would like to move forward in your career. Once stated, they have a duty to help you if they can. Obviously it has to be company related... you can't say you want to be a plumber and expect them to pay for it. The one thing that gobsmacked me is you are expected to change roles withing the company every couple of years. My senior manager told me that after about 20 years or so you should have changed to a different role at least seven or eight times... It's expected and encouraged.... Where I was before, if you were good at what you did, you were there to stay.

So, long reply but after an insiders insight, do you think large IT companies full of IT related staff and companies outsourcing their IT services into data centres is a bad thing ? Personally, I think it is just evolution. Maths is 3000 years old remember. We are still considerably less than 100 years old......... <imagine when IT is 3000 years old .. sheesh!>

elaverick1981

I think before we have ubiquitous cloud computing running all our servers some one needs to decide what the term actually means. Its another of these phrases that's been horribly hijacked by the media.
Viruses and spyware have had the same treatment. And Microsoft themselves have a nasty habit of mangling terms... I recently heard Terminal Services being refered to as Presentation Virutalisation...

Slowhand

elaverick1981 wrote: »

I think before we have ubiquitous cloud computing running all our servers some one needs to decide what the term actually means. Its another of these phrases that's been horribly hijacked by the media.
Viruses and spyware have had the same treatment. And Microsoft themselves have a nasty habit of mangling terms... I recently heard Terminal Services being refered to as Presentation Virutalisation...

Yup. While more and more wannabe-techies that think the height of IT know-how is going to MacWorld ramble on and on about "the singularity" like some kind of 1950's futurists, the world moves forward and the obsolete is replaced by the new, the problems we solve allow us to move forward and find new worlds to conquer, and most of us have gotten over just how nifty a digital watch is.*

Wouldn't it be wonderful if people spent less time thinking up new ways of re-packaging the things they go gaga over with prettier, shinier buzzterms and more time actually thinking and innovating so that the future really will be a wondrous place full of free-thinkers, ultra-stable mega-computers, hot green women with conveniently-similar biology to our own harboring a passion for all-too-average Earthlings?

*Yes, yes. I'm well-aware I stole that line from Doug Adams, but it's a good line. Besides, this is a neat watch, dammit.

Aldur

dynamik wrote: »

I wish someone would replace my wife with a robot. Some chores might actually get done, and we'd probably have more satisfying *ahem* conversations.

hahahahaha

oh hell, that was good, and I was thinking along the same lines looking at my messy house. She does work full time but c'mon, I work full time, go to school full time, cert study in my free time. You'd think she'd have time to fit some house work in between her video games and movies... oh well, she's still an awesome wife.