Well, my career has been on a huge upswing for the past few years. It has felt pretty good. A couple of weeks ago, I was contacted by a recruiter. As is always my policy I pursue any solicitation for work until A) it is obvious that it isn't going to pay well or

is a lateral or backwards step. So, I followed through and I was offered the job. The problem is, I played hardball with them, and they played hardball back... and the offer really isn't superb over my current position. Here is how it breaks down:
Pros: 15% pay increase, much closer to home, will be the technical lead of a large team (30+), working on something in the private sector (doing gov't contracting feels dirty and wrong, honestly).
Cons: short-term (two-years max... more likely 6-9 months, and then a possible extension), significantly less 401k match (makes the 15% increase only worth half as much), passing up the long-term opportunity at my current job (up for a promotion next cycle and a significant pay increase).
There are other factors that muck things up, as well... I am into my current employer for a significant amount of money for tuition reimbursement, and they are offering to pay twice as much this year for tuition reimbursement.
Bottom-line... there is no clear decision. My current contract runs for over three more years, but that could be cut short any time. Neither employer has any other opportunities in my metro area, either.
I have to make this decision and live with the outcome. This would probably be one of the times that I would use one of the three wishes a genie could give me so that I would make the right decision. I tried to push them to give me a 25% increase so that there was a but more clarity...
In any event, the clock is ticking and I have to either quit what I have and turn down the opportunity. If it was at all possible, I would work both, but I don't think it is (plus company policy absolutely forbids it).
Any advice?