Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst sees the traditional desktop becoming obsolete

tpatt100

I remember similar conversations years ago when people were saying laptops would never replace desktops.

hiddenknight821

tpatt100 wrote: »

I remember similar conversations years ago when people were saying laptops would never replace desktops.

The funny thing is that tablets are suppose to replace laptops, but laptops haven't replaced most desktops today. It's not disappearing as quickly as the payphone booths.

powerfool

hiddenknight821 wrote: »

The funny thing is that tablets are suppose to replace laptops, but laptops haven't replaced most desktops today. It's not disappearing as quickly as the payphone booths.

Yes, but laptop sales eclipsed desktop sales a couple of years ago. They are certainly more popular now.

Everyone

Thin Clients and/or Laptops are replacing desktops in the Enterprise. It will still take years, as most places are on a 5 year refresh cycle at best.

The way for tablets to take over this space, is for someone to create a docking station for a tablet that will allow it to function like a thin client.

Picture this, come in to work, plug your tablet into the docking station, have a full keyboard mouse and monitor to use while it charges. Virtual Desktop served to this from the datacenter to run all your business apps from.

Something like that would work for the vast majority of end users.

Why am I giving away this idea on a public forum? I should patent that and make bank off it. :P

rwmidl

Forsaken_GA wrote: »

Already been largely addressed with mobile phones. Any enterprise worth their salt will have remote wipe capability. Extending that functionality to tablets isn't really that challenging.

In the case of the iphone/ipad, you can already do it, and you can enforce a profile that enforces encryption on local storage, and won't allow the user to turn off the passcode (not to mention enforcing a more than 4 digits passcode with complexity requirements). Look for the iPhone Configuration Utility.

I've done this on my personal gear after that cute little news story about the Michigan police confiscating and dumping phones during routine stops.

Mad props for talking about this! I was looking at some Youtube videos last night on the iPhone/iPod configuration utility, and I think I'm going to have to download and it and "play around" with on my iPod.

xirtlook

we are evolving into a new era of virtualization.

At first it was Mainframe, then it came to processing power at the end-user, but now its reverting back to centralized processing.

Virtual Desktop Infrastructure... with this, you can access your desktop remotely and securely from any device, and across many different platforms.

iPad/Tablets, SmartPhones, Laptops, etc. No need for higher performance on the mobile device itself, its all centralized to a virtual server holding all the end-users desktops.

increase efficiency, increase mobility, increased security, increase management, etc etc.

not to mention, cloud computing. Private and Public cloud. Same concept, works great with mobile devices.

thats my .02

----

PS- I might be repeating what other people have said, I didnt read the entire thread. lol

petedude

I don't see desktops and laptops vanishing from the landscape immediately. Most immediate result from all these tablets is that form factors will continue to shrink and be optimized across the board-- smaller, cooler, faster. I don't see order takers and customer service folks in most businesses being able to run off tablets just yet, for example. You just won't see much new innovation in the desktop/laptop space, is all.

The thin client thing might get resurrected as a result of tablets, though.

RobertKaucher

rwmidl wrote: »

Out of curiosity, are these employees who "need" a laptop (ie sales reps, people who travel) or are these day to day, what I'd call "normal" users (sit at a desk all day, answer phones, etc)? If they are the later, are they being allowed to take home the laptop?

Forsaken_GA wrote: »

*Everyone* is having their desktops replaced with laptops.

I think this is cost an flexibility. If I can buy $3000 of the same model of laptop I am going to get a better deal and my support costs will go down due to standardization factors.

I agree with what a lot of people are saying about being stuck with laptops for a while. My wife bought me an Asus Transformer this weekend and I am in love with it. Using the split 'thumbs' soft keyboard I can type pretty fast - once these things get faster and lighter I will have laptop only for doing my work-like hobbies and nothing else. I hardly touched my laptop all weekend. Videos, study, everthing else was done on the tablet.

Devilsbane

<Sarcasm>What a forward thinker!</Sarcasm>

I've heard this from numerous people going back a couple of years.

RobertKaucher wrote: »

I hardly touched my laptop all weekend. Videos, study, everthing else was done on the tablet.

This will be true for non techs too. I talked my parents into upgrading from their lame phones to blackberries with an unlimited data connection. (same price as they were paying before for no internet and no texts). My mom embraced texting right away and after doing taxes on the computer (which she refused to turn on until all of the data was removed) found that that she could read all of her news stories and most of the other stuff she does online without bothering to turn on her computer. So many days she leaves it off now.

demonfurbie

i think tablets will grow in market share, and desktops will drop

i know alot of the universities around here are requiring a tablet (iPad, eww) just for battery life alone , that way they dont have to make sure each desk has a power outlet and all there stuff is made web based anyway

Claymoore

hiddenknight821 wrote: »

Get ready to change your opinion about CompTIA A+in the upcoming years, because I think it's going to make a major comeback.

Really? You think the A+ will make a comeback when the workforce switches to non-serviceable tablet devices? Experience with VDI, Wireless, SCCM 2012 (or other centralized management) will be more important than the ability to correctly discharge any residual static charge and ground yourself before you add a stick of RAM.

And I'll believe that tablets will replace desktops when I stop seeing companies that are stuck on IE6 browser plugins, 16 bit apps written by companies no longer in business, and homegrown VB6 applications...

hiddenknight821

Claymoore wrote: »

Really? You think the A+ will make a comeback when the workforce switches to non-serviceable tablet devices? Experience with VDI, Wireless, SCCM 2012 (or other centralized management) will be more important than the ability to correctly discharge any residual static charge and ground yourself before you add a stick of RAM.

And I'll believe that tablets will replace desktops when I stop seeing companies that are stuck on IE6 browser plugins, 16 bit apps written by companies no longer in business, and homegrown VB6 applications...

Good to know I invoked an opinion on this. It's just my opinion that I think it will make a major comeback for a year or two until everyone is able to quickly pick up the knowledge on how to service their tablets without wasting money on the vendors' BS technical supports. I'm not saying A+ will be THE cert. I also said CompTIA could come up with another new cert instead for mobile devices/tablets separated from the A+ since it probably already have a lot of negative connotations associated with it, which you implied. My prediction is more likely to become true only if many tablet vendors can reach to a consensus, having their basic physical hardwares standardized akin to laptop RAM sticks, batteries, and LED screen.

However, if what you said turned out to be true, then I will bet the tablets have significantly become cheaper for consumers, so that they would not bother getting their non-insured tablets serviced and just purchase a new tablet. Again, there is always someone repairing those tablets, and you impled that only vendors/non-third-party will repair the non-servicable tablets. I will bet the bench technicians repairing the non-servicable tablets are not from U.S. few years later from today.

RobertKaucher

Claymoore wrote: »

Really? You think the A+ will make a comeback when the workforce switches to non-serviceable tablet devices? Experience with VDI, Wireless, SCCM 2012 (or other centralized management) will be more important than the ability to correctly discharge any residual static charge and ground yourself before you add a stick of RAM.

And I'll believe that tablets will replace desktops when I stop seeing companies that are stuck on IE6 browser plugins, 16 bit apps written by companies no longer in business, and homegrown VB6 applications...

That's the truth! But I think thin client/VDE systems are going to take care of that aspect. I'm not saying in 5 years but I think in not much more than that we will see tablets overtake consumer sale of laptops and "everything eventually becomes what is." Meaning the corporate reality will eventually endup mirroring what the consumer reality as prices drop and the user base becomes more familiar, and therefore productive, with tablets.

And I think when people say things like "replace desktops" or "replace laptops" they don't mean that these things are going to be 100% dead, gone, no one will ever, ever touch a desktop ever again. What they are saying is that they will replace the desktop (or whatever) as the primary system used by workers.

In 10 years when I can set my tablet next to my docking station and have it function much like a desktop (log onto a TS session, etc) yet still be exceptionally mobile - we'll see the change. Until the HW is ready for that - aint gonna' happen.

it_consultant

We are at an interesting point in IT where people are paying more money for inherently less capable devices. When you look at an iPad, and look at its nearest competitor for battery life and weight (the two places where the iPad shines) you find that the MacBook Air is much more capable than the iPad. Now compare the iPad to one of these Samsung or Sony wonders you can get for $800 which are almost as light running Windows 7. If these were cars the answer would be simple. But they aren't, they are computers, and somehow economics work differently with gadgets.

Devilsbane

it_consultant wrote: »

somehow economics work differently with gadgets.

Not entirely. Branding is very much around with cars as well. Apple is to computers what BWM and Jaguar are to cars. It is a status symbol. Are they better cars? Maybe a little, but consumer reports rates Honda's and Nissan's very well each year too.

RobertKaucher

it_consultant wrote: »

If these were cars the answer would be simple. But they aren't, they are computers, and somehow economics work differently with gadgets.

Devilsbane wrote: »

Not entirely. Branding is very much around with cars as well. Apple is to computers what BWM and Jaguar are to cars. It is a status symbol. Are they better cars? Maybe a little, but consumer reports rates Honda's and Nissan's very well each year too.

I don't think that is really the answer. I honestly believe that a lot of this comes down to UI and form factor. Tablets and multi-touch devices have a very attractive, gesture based UI (and I don't mean attractive as in pretty). These are distinct animals that allow users to work with media and the web more easily than even a laptop.

My wife manages a about 5 home/school based therapists and 3 case managers. These people are always in the field. I presented a reality to her where her workers went into the field with a tablet and used something like TS remote app to access their line-of-business application. She said "No, that will never work." But when I got my Asus Transformer I configured a thumbs-based, split keyboard that has the num pad in the middle and showed her how to use it with a couple web based appilations and a word processor and she completely reversed her opinion.

I think they are very different from your laptop/desktop in that they have the potential of being far more flexible and for businesses - as more applications move into "the Cloud" and VDE becomes more common tablets become an option.

Devilsbane

RobertKaucher wrote: »

I don't think that is really the answer. I honestly believe that a lot of this comes down to UI and form factor.

Also true. But these cars also have a form factor and have features in them. For example, the iPhone/iPad has been a pioneer for many apps that have since been modified to work on other phones just like Cadillac was the first car to have heated seats.

RobertKaucher

elTorito wrote: »

Tablets being the primary client device? I'm not so sure. Ever tried doing any kind of productivity work involving a lot of typing with a touchscreen? Sure, you can connect all sorts of input devices to a tablet to make typing easier, but that kind of defeats the purpose of having a tablet in the first place, IMO. For GUI-only work, I can see the benefits, but to me, a netbook works much more comfortably.

So the fact that I have two monitors, a split keyboard and mouse defeat the purpose of me having a laptop? No, it does not. That's just how I work at my desk. If I were on the go and had a tablet I would be using it for word processing, email, and other light duties. I would always be doing real work at my desk. A thumb based keyboard lets you work pretty damn quickly on a tablet. So I can write emails and do word processing easily. If I were on a plane it would be a lot easier just to use the tablet. I've been admining all my servers at home with my tablet since I got it.

it_consultant

Its interesting, I remember reading an interview with one of MS' product managers for Windows 7. She was saying that when people were telling MS the features they wanted, normally the feature was already in Windows. My buddy was a Mac "genius" for a while and he said something similar. People would come in and call for problems and issues that were mainly a problem with the user not knowing how to use their computers.

No matter how a tech like us would use a tablet, most people will pay a premium for NOT having to learn how to use a computer. I find this sad, but it keeps us employed.

Mike-Mike

Devilsbane wrote: »

Not entirely. Branding is very much around with cars as well. Apple is to computers what BWM and Jaguar are to cars. It is a status symbol. Are they better cars? Maybe a little, but consumer reports rates Honda's and Nissan's very well each year too.

hmmm, maybe there's a correlation between my 1997 Ford F-150 and my pc is over 5 years old?

Devilsbane

RobertKaucher wrote: »

So the fact that I have two monitors, a split keyboard and mouse defeat the purpose of me having a laptop? No, it does not. That's just how I work at my desk. If I were on the go and had a tablet I would be using it for word processing, email, and other light duties. I would always be doing real work at my desk.

I completely agree with this. My phone is great for jotting down a quick note or doing some light browsing when I have 5 minutes to kill waiting in line at the coffee shop. I wouldn't imagine doing any actual work on this without driving myself nuts. I stay after work sometimes to do some of my stuff just because I find using a keyboard, mouse, and dual monitor display is easier than using my laptop at home. I think a lot of it has to do with a decent sized desk and a comfy chair too.

RobertKaucher

it_consultant wrote: »

Its interesting, I remember reading an interview with one of MS' product managers for Windows 7. She was saying that when people were telling MS the features they wanted, normally the feature was already in Windows. My buddy was a Mac "genius" for a while and he said something similar. People would come in and call for problems and issues that were mainly a problem with the user not knowing how to use their computers.

No matter how a tech like us would use a tablet, most people will pay a premium for NOT having to learn how to use a computer. I find this sad, but it keeps us employed.

Whenever I talk to people who want to complain about Windows or SharePoint it usually ends up like this:

User: "I don't like SharePoint."
Me: "Why not?"
User: "Well, SharePoint can't do X."
Me: "Sure it can."

Today I was talking with a Unix guy who was complaining that ping exits after 4 tries. I told him use -t and it will keep pining and use -n and you can specify the number of pings to send. "Oh" was his reply.

bertieb

Devilsbane wrote: »

I completely agree with this.

Same here. I'd need a tablet device the size of Wales to make me productive for my day to day activities. Fat fingers! I've lost count of how many misdirected emails I've sent on my iPhone

And besides, having two decent size monitors on my desk in work stops the project and service delivery managers in the office from making eye contact! I can feel the burning already.......

BradleyHU

wd40 wrote: »

Wow, we are not the only company that still have GX270 towers in production I really hate them, they will be gone soon with the GX620's and 745's

The silver one's I am not familiar with :

yeah, we still got 270s, 280s, & 620s in use...smh. A few dimension 4500s too...*kanyeshrug*

745s are ok, as well as 755s...we got a small amount of 780s, but all the new orders are the 990s...they're ok, small & compact, but i did prefer the look of the 700 series....

i personally dont think pcs will be obsolete anytime soon...flash memory/SSDs are still expensive and will always be more than HDDs. plus you can get a 2TB hdd for less than you can get a 64GB flash memory or SSD...that alone will keep pcs around...IMO.

another thing is with PCs, to a certain extent, and laptops, to a lesser extent, are upgradable without having to by a brand new machine.