PC sales drop. Again.

wes allen

Slow uptake of Win8, competition from tablets and phones lead to big drop, year over year.

So, what does IT look like in 5-10 years?

Worst PC sales drop in history - Apr. 10, 2013

ch1vas

I'd say some of it is because large Enterprises are switching to virtual desktops e.g. VDI thin clients.

nerdinhiding

It will look different then today which is always the given. There are tons of iPads out there but lucky for me the user's I support are still too stupid to use them. More and more applications will migrate to the cloud. Networking and security will always be in demand even if they are beaming signals to frisbees. As a guy with a wiring background I'm sad to see PCs go but its been a long time coming. 1GB wireless will push it even futher for the general population. Government that is serious about security will probably always stay with optics to the desk. Just my prediction.

NetworkingStudent

wes allen wrote: »

Slow uptake of Win8, competition from tablets and phones lead to big drop, year over year.

So, what does IT look like in 5-10 years?

Worst PC sales drop in history - Apr. 10, 2013

In IT
I think you will see more BYOD devices and policies in the corporate world. More malware Apps created for android devices. The ability to launch malicious attacks from a smart phone will become a lot easier as well. Malware seems to follow what’s trending, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was more malware attacks aimed at mobile devices. More companies and consumers are going to hold on to their Windows 7 machines.


In computer repair and consumer computers
The users that just check email, are probably going to be just fine with a Smartphone or tablet. I think the biggest worry is the computer repair techs and shops, because more consumers are switching to smart devices. Smart devices often don’t get repaired, instead the consumer purchases a new device.

I think in the end people will want to create things and they will want a PC.

Jasiono

I'm at a job that requires computers to produce a tangible product, and with the techniques involved, there is no way a computer will ever automate the process. My spacebar does not work so I will stop here, but I was basically going to say that I agree with the previous post regarding people moving to smart phones, and that they are cheaper to dispose of than to repair.

tpatt100

I replaced my wife's 2007 iMac with an iPad mini, just sayin....

I set her up with a profile on my laptop so she can use it when needed which is like twice a month.

N2IT

I've seen this coming for about 3 years now. Enterprises are dropping costly laptops and workstations for inexpensive WYSE terminals. Like tpatt mentioned there is no reason to have some massive laptop or desktop set up when an iPad can deliver the same functionality. Developers have been developing for mobile computing first and everything else last. All trends point to this and it will not change. The desktop and laptop will be an artifact eventually. Without solid projections it's hard to quantify, but I believe within 5 years desktops and laptops will be a thing of the past. Their usefulness is becoming less and less or should I say the mobile devices and applications are becoming more useful.

And I am glad to be honest. I'd rather lounge on my couch or recliners than sit hunched over at a computer desk.

@Networkstudent - The same thing happen to TV repair men.

Hypntick

I think sales of new hardware will continue to drop, however there are enough SMBs out there that will still hold on to their old equipment and refuse to change. I know for myself I will not willingly give up my desktop or laptop, but that's personal preference. Then again even those SMBs that are holding on to dinosaur hardware, a lot of them are using that as a jumping off point to a RDP session on a server hosted off-site. I do prefer the thin-client style of things, much easier to control and secure.

olaHalo

I dont think desktops/laptops will go away too soon. They will be a niche market though.
Did TV make radio go away? Did mobile phones kill land lines?

N2IT

You can still buy a reel to reel as well. Does technology ever go away for good? I think the point is the jobs supporting the technologies will be few and far between.

So up and comers may want to focus on VDI solutions or mobility inlieu of desktops and laptops.

ptilsen

We've had a couple threads on this already. Bottom line, there will always be a market for portable horsepower (laptop, convertible, hybrid) and for local stationary power (desktop). SMBs generally can't afford to move to desktop or session virtualization, because it doesn't actually save any money. Even at large orgs, software development, 3D modeling, etc. all but preclude anything but PCs as a user station. Current virtualization technology ranges from being a more expensive, less effective substitute to not being one at all. We're still 3-5 years away from it maturing sufficiently, and more like ten from ubiquity. And again, that's just large organizations. In my professional opinion, the licensing and hardware of desktop and session virtualization will never be cheaper for SMBs than just buying $400 PCs, even with cloud services becoming more effective.

My organizations I've seen aren't replacing laptops with iPads; they're augmenting them. An iPad is frankly still a pretty crappy solution for most business tasks, keyboard or not. Surface and the like are more reasonable laptop alternatives, but those are still PCs as far as I'm concerned. True death of PCs will come only when we have usable neural interfaces.

Here's what we're seeing, and will continue to see for at least another year. People buy new PCs less frequently. They upgrade less and are less likely to need them at all. Other devices are replacing them for more people. Of the end-user device market, if you will, PCs have yet to hit their bottom market share percentage. It's probably 2/3, maybe 1/2 of what it is now, but it's not 5% or 0%. They will still be around, at all levels of business and in homes. I think within three years we'll see all sectors of this market decline. Devices on all fronts will become less and less compelling upgrades. It's the worst with PCs. SSDs were the last revolution. It's all incremental from here, and incremental just won't do when tablets and phones still have so much maturing to do. People swap those out every two years because of significant improvements in hardware and software. PC hardware is hardly compelling upgrades, and software (ie Windows 8 ) is actually deterring it.

To answer OP, IT doesn't change much. A bit top-heavier. That is, more server-side work, less client-side. PCs and their substitutes alike are becoming easier to support and implement, and cheaper. Focus on server, network, software, security, etc. skills if you're in a support position, because the imperative to get out of there is growing. Even if more devices means more support, support is becoming a less technical position. More people can do it and for less money. Once you're on the server side, it doesn't matter. If you're rolling out software and settings to PCs today with SCCM, Group Policy, etc., you're doing the same thing in three years. Maybe it's to VDI or XenApp or RDSH, but that's trivial. The tools don't even change much, nevermind the underlying technology. Maybe you add in MDM solutions, but the only challenge there is integration with server systems, not the client side. The client side is cake.

If you're on the network or database side of things, it doesn't matter at all. More wireless clients, maybe, but really wireless already peaked in terms of demand with laptops. It's not like tablets add demand for that, just change it from laptop to tablet. In general, my long, rambling point is it doesn't matter as long as you're working with a higher-level technology that isn't in decline. Windows itself it hardly in a major decline. Linux certainly isn't. TCP/IP, email, etc. aren't going away. What happens on the client side should be largely immaterial to you as a professional unless you're in a low-level support role.

phoeneous

N2IT wrote: »

there is no reason to have some massive laptop or desktop set up when an iPad can deliver the same functionality

Same, no. Almost quite similar, yes.

dave330i

What ptilsen said.

Traditional PCs aren't going away. Market share will continue to shrink, but they'll be around for a whlie.

nerdinhiding

olaHalo wrote: »

I dont think desktops/laptops will go away too soon. They will be a niche market though.
Did TV make radio go away? Did mobile phones kill land lines?

I think in 5 years the PC will not be dead but it sure will smell funny. I am still replacing CRT monitors for customers and how long has LCD been affordable? I will be sad to see it PCs go for nostalgia reasons but couch surfing is a plus.

tbgree00

There will always be exceptions. In a consumer world many of my friends are replacing computers with tablets. That said they are having trouble with getting pictures and video saved and opt to keep their older computers longer as a sort of file host.

In my business world tablets are more toys and "worst case/Minimum productivity" XenDesktop clients. Until they can support 4 monitors, mouse and keyboards then they're not going to gain traction. The Win 8 tablets are starting to get there but they don't have the monitor support really be a dumb terminal.

N2IT

ptilsen wrote: »

Even at large orgs, software development, 3D modeling, etc. all but preclude anything but PCs as a user station. Current virtualization technology ranges from being a more expensive, less effective substitute to not being one at all.

The WYSE terminals have firmware with hardcoded version of Windows OS which makes development relatively seemless. I actually just spoke to 2 of our .Net developers and this is a non factor according to them.

You still have not shown the numbers that it's more affordable. Just recently I have worked for 2 fortune 500 companies who say otherwise. And your 300/400 dollar desktop doesn't including software licensing or extended warranty to cover through EOL.

BYOD is here to stay and while I agree with you that ipad's are for augmentation, most business users don't need a comprehensive desktop, it's a waste. Give them a dumb terminal that has a virtual access to Office and their ERP or whatever tool set they use and they are good to go. It makes sense from a security standpoint, instead of a bunch of free standing desktops that can grow legs and walk off. The terminal has all the security built in on the backend.

The cost will be driven down by hosting companies who will provide this solution for the small and medium size companies. CenturyLink AKA Savvis Direct has already begun to spin up these services. It will be here faster than you claim IMO.

ptilsen

N2IT wrote: »

You still have not shown the numbers that it's more affordable. Just recently I have worked for 2 fortune 500 companies who say otherwise. And your 300/400 dollar desktop doesn't including software licensing or extended warranty to cover through EOL.

Nor has anyone provided numbers to the contrary. I don't think there's any value in doing a hypothetical cost comparison for the purposes of this discussion, because we can literally come up with 30 scenarios showing either side and not capture the entirety of the market. Suffice it to say, in virtually (pun intended!) every scenario I've looked at to implement VDI or pure session virtualization, it has not been cheaper than workstations.

Just to start, licensing isn't any cheaper. You don't get to pay less per user or per device because of virtualization. The cost of the Windows client license is the only removal (and only in session virtualization, not in VDI), and it's more than replaced in other costs. Maybe Fortune 500s have some secret licensing deals that make RDS CALs free, but I would be surprised. Windows Enterprise licenses actually come with a VM add-on license (at least at the levels I've worked at) that makes it cheaper to use desktops/laptops with VDI than it is to just buy the needed licenses for pure VDI. The benefits of VDI are more about centralization, support, management, maintenance. The cost of implementation is simply not cheaper. Just at a hardware level, you spend more per-user than you will with desktops. The best justification I can make for a full switch to VDI or session V is when the organization is already using it and already paying for the CALs, and it's come down to the extra circuit costs and the cost of supporting and implementing terminals vs desktops.

Now here's the thing, I agree that most people don't need a desktop and that most large organizations should implement pure VDI or session virtualization. Thin clients connecting to servers or virtual desktops make for a far more manageable environment. Using that environment increases the productivity of mobile devices like iPads by giving you the same desktop environment across devices. Failures become more predictable and preventable. Unfortunately, the implementation costs alone dissuade many businesses. In certain environments, I have no doubt they can find a way to justify it. In many others, however, it just can't be cost-justified. I can tell you for my employer, the cost would be 4x what maintaining status quo with desktop refreshes would be, and it's not even an option since we have a dozen small sites filled with AutoCAD users, for whom there is no effective solution (I do see that happening within three years). And this is something I want to implement and I've worked hard to find a way to justify it, but I just can't. When I was doing the SMB consulting, it was even harder there. To build a solution or even go to a cloud provider with it and have it be better than PCs at that level was easily 10x the cost for no hard benefit. And don't forget bandwidth. The cost of highly available connections with sufficient bandwidth is still outrageous in the United States. If we all had Google fiber and it offered a business service with over 5 9s on the SLA this might be a different conversation.

I think the providers hosting these solutions will become more affordable and widespread, but I just don't see it really taking off in the next three years. The tech is there now to do it for many, maybe most businesses who easily could get by without workstations, but the cost is 5x what it needs to be. It's definitely the trend, don't get me wrong, but I really think we're 5+ from seeing desktops and laptops truly start to disappear from all levels of corporate networks, if only because the workstations bought over then next two years won't need replacement for five or six.

tpatt100

Well I am fine with off site hosting, but please do not let the people hosting Simcity run it.

chmod

I agree with Ptilsen, it depends on the scenario.

For example: I remember a pharmaceutical company with a lab/drugstores/supply chain division all around the country. You have a small PoS printer and a "laser-gun" lol for the code bar check, connected to a cheap desktop with a monitor no need for wireless or that stuff just one or 2 cables connected to the ISP modem with 1meg and a system that synchronizes whenever there is a connection. Probably 2 PCs if they have a doctor onsite if the drugstore is big enough. Seting up wireless on each store, plus getting a reliable internet connection plus replacing hundreds of desktops for thin clients plus licensing that is a lot of moeny and al lot of changes plus you don't want your salesman to have your sales info in their smartphone.
A few powerful computers in their lab connected to a server hosted anywhere and they are good to go in the Lab.

Asif Dasl

There is no break-down on the numbers to see if there is a drop in laptop sales to tablets or if desktops are being hit the most. There was another thread about this last year sometime but I repeat what I said then - tablets will have to avoid the rules of thermodynamics to overtake the laptop/desktop. For casual computing it's fine, but anybody I hear talking about this has multiple devices - I myself own 3 desktops, 1 android tablet and will probably be adding an iPad mini and an iPhone 5. They all have different roles but I'll admit it's canabalising the ol' beige box. Savvy consumers will buy what's best for them given the increased competition and saturation of devices that can get on the internet.

N2IT

@CHMOD

They have sales/CRM applications that capture the information from the sales people. Example would be salesforce or some of the ERP CRM modules. They log into the application then use the application which is designed to work on their phone or tablet.

I spend a lot of time at a cigar bar and at that bar is business owners and salesmen. The salesmen all work off their phone, very rarely do you see one on a laptop doing business. They login into Salesforce or whatever application and go down their top 10 list. Sales has changed A LOT.

There will always be a techy who wants the big liquid cooled box, but most business men, sales men, etc will own a smart device inlieu of a clunky laptop. Now what would make sense would be to scale back on desktops or laptops and have a check in and out system in place.

With LTE growing as well the download speeds are faster than some land lines.

N2IT

Tablet and smartphone growth flies past traditional computer market - Memphis Business Journal

Another decent article showing the alarming trends.

Another good article: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/07/13/personal-computer-sales-fall-pc-going-extinct/

ptilsen

Traveling sales professionals are definitely one group that will use almost exclusively tablets, phones, and hybrids. Same may still have a need for a physical keyboard, but I think the vast majority will be using iPads and such soon enough -- if they aren't already, that is.

One consequence of these trends, getting back to OP once again, is development is definitely going to be the fastest growing area of IT, IMO. Multi-platform support is becoming a must for cloud services. A java web app or Windows desktop app isn't going to cut it. You have to build two or three mobile platform apps, a Windows app, a web app, maybe a Mac app if you want to be competitive. There's some portability there, but ultimately you need more and more developers to make those apps.

N2IT

PT agree

I believe salesman and casual consumers will be the biggest piece of the market to swap over to the smart device.

I still have a desktop at work with an I7 processor to crunch huge data sets when it's local (Access and Excel), but with the assistance of web services or some interface into the server all the processing could be done on the box and the client machine could be basically an interface with some inputs and outputs. Infact when I write SQL queries to the VM I can return millions of rows faster than I can run a vlookup on 400,000 rows.

TheShadow

Lots of great arguments pro and con. Don't have the urge to type on my cell phone but I will leave this timeline
1975 Mainframe sales will die because mini computers from DEC and the like are eroding market share
1985 mini computer sales will die because desktop personal computers are eroding market share.
1995 Mainframe and mini computer sales will die because of Local Area Networks and something called the INTERNET
2005 Desktop computer sales will die because laptops are eroding market share.
2013-15 Desktop and Laptop PC sales will die because IOS and Android are eroding market share
20xx ???? I assume I will probably die my only sure bet. Until then I'll roll with the technology as it unfolds.

Draw your own conclusions but I will point out that none of the above devices have actually died yet only became more powerful in some categories like the mainframe. I am still waiting for COBOL to die.

tpatt100

TheShadow wrote: »

Lots of great arguments pro and con. Don't have the urge to type on my cell phone but I will leave this timeline
1975 Mainframe sales will die because mini computers from DEC and the like are eroding market share
1985 mini computer sales will die because desktop personal computers are eroding market share.
1995 Mainframe and mini computer sales will die because of Local Area Networks and something called the INTERNET
2005 Desktop computer sales will die because laptops are eroding market share.
2013-15 Desktop and Laptop PC sales will die because IOS and Android are eroding market share
20xx ???? I assume I will probably die my only sure bet. Until then I'll roll with the technology as it unfolds.

Draw your own conclusions but I will point out that none of the above devices have actually died yet only became more powerful in some categories like the mainframe. I am still waiting for COBOL to die.

Lol, not saying that things actually "die" but I think they just stop growing. That is what starts all these "Insert X is dying" stories is when we hear something is decreasing we just assume it is "dying". I doubt people are just throwing their desktops and laptops in the trash they just become less used. Eventually when they break physically is when people think "do I really need that?" and many still do but just not as much so they buy something cheap.

I think the growth the industry got used to shifted to tablets and phones. And even now tablets and phones have pretty much peaked and the novelty of the two year upgrade cycle will probably shift to "upgrade when it breaks or stops holding a charge".

TheShadow

@tpatt100. I believe you have a true grasp of the situation. However in most of the cases in my timeline there was an initial dip in sales and then the number generally leveled off to a sustaining number.

tpatt100

Sorry I forgot to mention it but I bolded the part where you said you were on your phone.

I remember years ago if I heard something I wanted to talk about I had to run home and call a friend.

Then it was go to the college's computer lab to log into the BBS I hung out on to make a post and or message a friend.

At the same time I would send an email via Pine or some other text based email client.

Later webmail became the norm and forums were pre "social media". Internet at that time for me was still per hour AOL.

Now I never have to wait to get to the school lab or or home to communicate.

Probably why I was more focused back then....

wes allen

Another link - If you make PCs and you’re not Lenovo, you might be in trouble | Ars Technica

I guess Lenovo is still doing OK, but the others not so much. One thing that is interesting to me is the Dell and HP are tripping over themselves while trying to exit the PC market as fast as they can in an attempt to follow in IBM's footsteps. With many bigger enterprises ordering generic servers directly from overseas OEM, and consumers either going tablets or dramatically increasing their refresh cycle time, they are getting squeezed from both sides while in the middle of plenty of corporate drama as well.

I agree that PC's are not going away tomorrow or probably in the next couple years, but it never hurts to hedge your bets a bit, and keep your skills diverse. I watch a lot of Netware engineers struggle because they discounted MS servers as being an inferior solution, and in a sense, it might have been, but the market moved that way anyway. Better doesn't always win, or we would all be running OS/2, right?

N2IT

Lenovo about a year or two ago really cut their corporate prices to get market shareback from Dell. The support is very hard to get anything though. They demand you go through all of the troubleshooting. I mean all, whereas Dell could careless about anything. Send them back a dead mouse for a usb one and they would accept it.

tpatt100

Companies are moving deeper into jungles and mountains looking for people willing to work for almost nothing to get the prices down since we don't like "over priced" electronics. Really the PC market became a race to the bottom over the past decade. Smartphones are already on a race to the bottom besides Apple and Samsung the others are just celebrating losing less money than last year.