Amazon... Insidious Menace?

volfkhat

[i was going to put this in "off topic", but decided that here is exactly where it belongs.]

Has anyone taken a moment to consider the impact of this company?
I think some people (who have taken notice) are beginning to have concerns about the future of.... well, everything.

Take AWS, for example.
AWS is a juggernaut.
AWS, however, is also cannibalizing sysadmin positions.

"So what", i guess is your response.
But have you taken a moment to consider what other industries Amazon is setting its sights on?

I recently stumbled upon this lecture (just by chance):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MOwRTTq1bY

After taking a couple days to let it soak in... i keep having this uneasy feeling:

Is the working-class digging its own grave by supporting this company?

Is it time i reconsider how i spend my $$$?
(or... is it already too late?)

NetworkNewb

Yeppppp reason I bought some Amazon stock this year Adapt or die

NEODREAM

Amazon is a titan and they have enough money to crush anything in their path at this point.

Goodbye world, all hail our new overlords.

NetworkingStudent

I still see plenty of Syhsadmin jobs, and I'm not currently applying for this role.

I don't think AWS is cannibalizing sysadmin positions.

Technology changes and so does the skillet required to maintain that technology.

You can create servers in AWS, however; you still need to have someone check on them and maintain them.

In future, I think people that work in retail as cashiers won't have as many jobs as they did in the past.

I see in the news that there are a lot of retail stores closing. I don't see any near me that have closed down.

This happened before Years ago........

Wal-mart came into towns and closed small mom and pop shops without any remorse. Life went on and people got new jobs.

It will be interesting to see what happens as Wal-mart and Amazon duke it out.

DatabaseHead

Government will come in and break them up if they get too big.

Deus Ex Machina

Agricultural jobs were wiped out during the U.S. industrial revolution (which represented 50% of the U.S. labor force in the 19th century), largely due to the mechanization of their labor. Farm hands were left without a quality education and no obvious career paths, and many of them had 5-6 + kids to feed. Ironically, many went into manufacturing, building the machines that had just replaced them.

Manufacturing went on to become the largest industry in the U.S. itself in the early 20th century. Salaries were so high that it became standard that the man of the house would earn enough to put food on the table and keep a roof over their families heads single handed.

Those jobs were wiped out as well though, this time by outsourcing and (increasingly) automation. Many in manufacturing found work elsewhere, and jobs have begun opening up in programming, design, engineering, etc.

As you can see, there is a pattern. As old industries die, new ones are born. The big fear right now is that the exploding human population in the U.S. in conjunction with the advent of AI and automation will break the cycle and millions will starve in the streets.

I can assure you that, based on historical evidence, this is unlikely, though I'll admit it a bit scary. Another thing that I can assure you is that the government will not allow that to happen, and if it did, it wouldn't be our government for much longer.

The best thing you can do now is learn skills that are in demand and get ready to never stop learning. People who refuse to expand their education are the first ones who go into the dustpan of our economy.

kalimuscle

Who cares if it reduces IT staff in an organization! It is exactly how it should be! Less resources to run an IT environment means less expenses for the organization which equals to more profit $$$ for the organization!

If you can’t beat them!

Join them!

Out with the Old! And in with the New !

Keep up with the times man!

My suggestions is instead of being scared that these Cloud Computing Platforms such as Azure, AWS etc would take away your jobs, look at how you could upskill in those technologies and look at how you could use these technologies to better your organization's IT needs ! Look at how you could use these technologies to provide solutions to IT issues that your current/future organization is facing.

For an example- In MSPs they require less IT Professionals to service their client base than a decade or two ago. This is mainly because technology has gotten a lot better as in less things break and also it is more easier (depending on the technology) to Implement and manage them and the IT world (still being a relative new industry compared to other industries like accounting or hospitality) it has matured itself.

I see the same things happening now! – In a decade we would need less and less IT Professionals than now!

ande0255

If you have ever worked with AWS, in my opinion, you want to run away from it if you plan any company scalability at all.

They make it as cryptic on their interface as possible, so only extremely trained AWS Experts can navigate their interface, meaning if you jump in bed with AWS you are going to have a tough time jumping back out of bed with them.

I always warn my customers, when it comes to edge devices, you just can't beat a single or paired edge device(s) and internal servers to handle all the network services you could possibly need. This way if you change MSP's or your AWS Expert quits without notice, you aren't left completely **** out of luck.

I am not worried at all about AWS, I don't think this whole "Cloud" movement is really as staggering as people think, unless you are talking in terms of regular employees logging into Citrix or a Terminal Server at a Data Center to retrieve their applications.

Perhaps this is the case with Enterprise customers, but for SMB's I see them utilizing my companies Managed Cloud to deliver workers applications, however there is still a need for engineers to build / maintain the connections to those Datacenters / makes changes on both sides (VPN) at times when ISP's change or adding redundant connections.

I just don't get worked up over AWS, SDN, over cloud computing at all. There will always be a need for manual human intervention for configuration / troubleshooting of these SDN's / Clouds that customers are using, so there is absolutely no sense in worrying about it.

LittleBIT

If you dont keep up with the times, you'll be left behind. Im embracing AWS and learning a butt load. Itll render Sys Admins nearly obselete. Of course there will always be a need for the guy to go in and install a printer or a PC, but dont expect a huge paycheck. Instead of feeding into the fear, be open minded.

The need for AWS engineers has never been greater, and its only becoming bigger.

I laugh all the time at sys admins who talk about compliance, data security and all of that, yet run unpatched workstations with old java and flash. Get over yourselves lol.

Its fun to talk theory and preach, but in the end, the realism is AWS is here to stay and theres lots of money to be made with it. If your in an MSP and not using it, youre leaving a lot of money in the table.

TheFORCE

I watched a quick conversation on those money shows at cnbc or msnbc, they said 1 robot = 6 jobs lost.

I was going to make a similiar post and ask what happens when 50% or 60% of the jobs get replaced by robots? And dont say well people will start fixing robots because robots will be fixing robots. So what happens then? Who supports those 60% who lost their job to a robot? Does the government support them or .... . Better get those plans ready to colonize other planets.

kalimuscle

TheFORCE wrote: »

I watched a quick conversation on those money shows at cnbc or msnbc, they said 1 robot = 6 jobs lost.

I was going to make a similiar post and ask what happens when 50% or 60% of the jobs get replaced by robots? And dont say well people will start fixing robots because robots will be fixing robots. So what happens then? Who supports those 60% who lost their job to a robot? Does the government support them or .... . Better get those plans ready to colonize other planets.

there is always the streets

Deus Ex Machina

TheFORCE wrote: »

I watched a quick conversation on those money shows at cnbc or msnbc, they said 1 robot = 6 jobs lost.

I was going to make a similar post and ask what happens when 50% or 60% of the jobs get replaced by robots? And dont say well people will start fixing robots because robots will be fixing robots. So what happens then? Who supports those 60% who lost their job to a robot? Does the government support them or .... . Better get those plans ready to colonize other planets.

50 million unemployed people on the streets will not last long. There's simply no way. The Great Depression was bad, but people wouldn't tolerate another one. A society where 25+% of the nation is homeless cannot survive for multiple reasons.

kalimuscle

Deus Ex Machina wrote: »

50 million unemployed people on the streets will not last long. There's simply no way. The Great Depression was bad, but people wouldn't tolerate another one. A society where 25+% of the nation is homeless cannot survive for multiple reasons.

what i ment by the streets was you know hustling

ofcourse i was kidding !

Fulcrum45

TheFORCE wrote: »

I watched a quick conversation on those money shows at cnbc or msnbc, they said 1 robot = 6 jobs lost.

I was going to make a similiar post and ask what happens when 50% or 60% of the jobs get replaced by robots? And dont say well people will start fixing robots because robots will be fixing robots.

On that note I just read an article about robots fixing us! Assisting in surgeries to outright taking them over. Even surgeons are not safe, haha!

Node Man

I was thinking about something new to add to this topic. Here goes:

Its possible that job loss to automation is a relative and personal experience. I don't see many people today complaining that Microsoft Excel is destroying accounting jobs, and I don't see people complaining that autocad is destroying design jobs. And both of those technologies did that big time.

JoJoCal19

NEODREAM wrote: »

Amazon is a titan and they have enough money to crush anything in their path at this point.

Goodbye world, all hail our new overlords.

I dunno, Apple has like 50% more market cap than Amazon, and they have almost $300bn in cash on hand (before today's earnings call too). I'm more wondering what Apple has up it's sleeves....

I do have concerns about Amazon's effects on retail though. I'm guilty of buying things from Amazon. But I still do buy a ton of stuff from retail stores and I actually enjoy going out shopping.

Node Man

Conscientious shopping will not beat Amazon. A better idea will.

mbarrett

These big tech companies will either a) get broken up or b) be forced to keep innovating to keep up. Google has done a great job of setting the company's culture towards cutting-edge stuff, and they will be around for years to come. I didn't watch the Youtube video yet (I'm at work), but I see them as more limited than Google in terms of innovation. Not they haven't come up with some great ways of doing business (they have, obviously) but they don't have as many "irons in the fire" to sustain their business. (At least, that's my impression.) Having said that, they are a behemoth and will be around for a while, especially in the retail space (which they pwn, at this point.) In some market sectors, they will have a place but they won't be the be-all, end-all like they do with books) because books are closer to a commodity. In other areas, like clothing they are a player but the market is so fragmented they will never take it over. I can see a lot of the lower-end products going online (because it scales better with the volume) but you can't go to a website to try stuff on.

gespenstern

I see the bad moon risin.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquake and lightnin.
I see bad times today.

NetworkNewb

gespenstern wrote: »

I see the bad moon risin.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquake and lightnin.
I see bad times today.

That is going to be stuck in my head all day now...

joelsfood

You know, this all can be blamed on that damn Henry Ford and his production lines....

Things change, and Deus Ex Machina already covered it wonderfully. For some numbers specific to the growth of Amazon and the jobs it is affecting

https://www.statista.com/statistics/234488/number-of-amazon-employees/

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Income Statement - NASDAQ.com

FDX Annual Income Statement - FedEx Corp. Annual Financials

Etc

Things change. Personally, I'm happy to live in an age where we have vaccines for cancer, where people live longer and ehalthier lives, where I can buy a 4k tv for $150 and I can get next day delivery for free on all kinds of items.

anhtran35

Not concern. Just keep up with the technology. I'm learning AWS now. Microsoft Azure next. Google Cloud is something to watch out for too. Keep my expenses low. Retire overseas in 30 years. Woooooooooo.

Iristheangel

Node Man wrote: »

Conscientious shopping will not beat Amazon. A better idea will.

+1 to this quote.

mbarrett

joelsfood wrote: »

Personally, I'm happy to live in an age where we have vaccines for cancer, where people live longer and ehalthier lives, where I can buy a 4k tv for $150 and I can get next day delivery for free on all kinds of items.

Yeah, it's pretty f&cking amazing - just don't listen to politicians or those "experts" on cable "news" who try & tell you we are about to go off a cliff...

TrailRunr

The old school sysadmin from the 1980s and 1990s may have managed 100 physical servers and needed to debug the kernel of a broken server to get it back into production. Today's sysadmin manages thousands of VMs and would not spend one second on debugging the kernel to figure out why the server keeps crashing after a reboot. Instead, just grab a backup of the VM and spin it up. Lots of sysadmin jobs have vaporized since VMware came out. The sysadmin that's still around knows how to script/code. But he's eventually going to automate his job out of existence with his coding. Some devs would not be sad to see the local sysadmin go away forever and manage their own VMs better than the sysadmin.

So the cycle of jobs continues where the ex-sysadmin goes do something different in IT. But look at what happened to manufacturing and how some of the workers could not learn and adapt. Same thing happened in warehouses as jobs are replaced by robots. Uber drivers will be a thing of the past soon. But same thing will happen with semi truck drivers and truck stop employees since robots never sleep. Many folks including outdated IT folks will end up going downwards and working at Walmart and McDonalds rather than adapting.

You think it's real easy to adapt at 25 years old and I don't disagree at all. But by the time you are at 45 and 55, the amount of knowledge you need is going to be way more than at 25. COBOL programmers during the late 90s that I know had a real hard time learning Java and object oriented programming. Same thing with today's IT folks trying to figure out machine learning and data science as they try to pivot out of areas of IT that are dying like sysadmin. Quite frankly, you'll start to care about your family at age 45 and not get excited about IT anymore. Windows admins used to be folks that click the Next button all day on Windows NT. Now Windows admins need to know the ins and outs of VMware, AD, and a lot more. And how long before all of this stuff goes to the cloud?

It's easy to say you'll adapt to change. It's actually much harder in practice.

volfkhat

great feedback :]
but i think some of you didn't actually watch the lecture.

AWS was just an example.

when i said i have concerns with "the future of everything..."
i didn't mean only sysadmin positions.

heck, i don't mean just the I.T. industry either.

Look at the Malls across the country; many are fading (and all the jobs that go with it).
But i don't totally blame 'Amazon' for that (arguably, they were already in decline).

But if/when BestBuy eventually folds... what then?
Will you/some really argue that Amazon wasn't the reason?

How has the Book industry been affected by Amazon's ebook evolution over the past decade?
More (net) Jobs? Less jobs? Flat jobs?

Consider this article:
Amazon's newest shopping disruption is a doozy - CBS News
How do you think AZ will impact future cashier service jobs?
More (net) Jobs? Less jobs? Flat jobs?
Do you think walmart hasn't taken notice?

How about Callcenters:
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/report-amazon-plans-bring-alexa-cloud-based-deep-learning-tools-call-centers/
Are these innovations still good for the working-class?

joelsfood wrote: »

For some numbers specific to the growth of Amazon and the jobs it is affecting
https://www.statista.com/statistics/234488/number-of-amazon-employees/
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Income Statement - NASDAQ.com
FDX Annual Income Statement - FedEx Corp. Annual Financials

So... you point to a company's share-price as a measurement of "good for the economy"?
Personally, I don't agree.
My concern is with Amazon's long-term plans. Looking at a company's share-price is irrelevant (imo).
in fact, i've seen instances where company share-prices RISE after announcing massive layoffs.

But, to counter more pointedly:
https://arstechnica.com/business/2016/09/amazon-wants-to-challenge-ups-and-fedex-with-its-own-delivery-system/
Again, what is the result?
More Jobs? Less jobs? Flat jobs?


Some of you have said to "keep improving your skills" to stay ahead of the bunch.
That is a fair point; i don't disagree. in fact, i'm not really worried for myself (not yet, at least).
but what if we innovate-away too many jobs?
Is it possible that we reach a point where there's just too many people?

Self-driving cars are great...
but i assume they will lead to self-driving Buses (public transportation).
And then... how about Self-driving 18-wheelers?

How much longer before Uber fires all it's "contractors" in favor of an autonomous fleet?
https://www.theverge.com/2017/2/21/14687346/uber-self-driving-car-arizona-pilot-ducey-california
See where i'm going here?

Things change. Personally, I'm happy to live in an age where we have vaccines for cancer, where people live longer and healthier lives, where I can buy a 4k tv for $150 and I can get next day delivery for free on all kinds of items.

This is the kind of attitude that worries me.
People don't care as long as they're on the winning side.

But what good is a $150 4K television if you can't afford to buy one (through lack of employment)?
WHat good is a cancer vaccine if you don't have insurance to get one?
What good is your big fancy house with your self-driving car... if you are afraid to go out on the streets...

blargoe

I'm going in the direction of cloud because that is the where the flow of traffic is going right now. Eventually as I get more coding experience, I figure I will transition into more dev if the current trends continue. I have not intention of aging out until I'm darn well ready to ride off in to the sunset.

NetworkNewb

“Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced [robots] wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality."

-Stephen Hawking

UnixGuy

Technology is great, automation is great. The number of available jobs in every field WILL decrease...because isn't this the point of technology? Do better with less.

Enter: Universal basic income.

New economy, and the will will keep on changing.

Ismaeljrp

Adapt and overcome. Semper Gumbi Oorah!

jelevated

200 Data Center Jobs are displaced by a core team of 10 Service Engineers and 10 Data Center Technicians with greater scale. Are those Data Center jobs owed to someone?

If we think simply in dollars then, someone "loses" in this equation (those whose jobs have been replaced) but if we look at the person, one googler said it best, "machines should manage machines". Each body that we need to run a system we are, in effect "feeding" people to these machines. Is that what we want?


Amazon making a play into a cashier less convenience store is a great example, largely angering grocery store workers, but why? Very rarely is my grocery store experience enhanced by the workers themselves and often they detract. there are exceptions, only one grocery store in my area delivers above average service across the board. I will continue to shop there for the meats and cheeses, but I will definitely choose a workerless option over rude/incompetent employees and will pay extra for the privilege.