Is Microsoft Dying?

FluxCapacitor

I met my high school's network technician guy today and I told him that I plan to pursue certifications in Vista and Server 2008 after I complete my MCSA. He told me that it would be a waste of my time because the industry is moving towards linux. He said that in about 10 years Microsoft's control of the market will be gone. Is this true? Should I just abandon my Microsoft studies?

Non-Profit Techie

total bs! o and the stock market will be at 0 one day too.

Stotic

I wouldn't listen to some random 'high school' technician. Sometimes techies who love Linux blindside themselves and try to force it upon everyone else.

tiersten

Stotic wrote: »

I wouldn't listen to some random 'high school' technician. Sometimes techies who love Linux blindside themselves and try to force it upon everyone else.

Yup. This exactly. I like and use Linux but I don't see Linux overtaking the desktop anytime soon.

jryantech

Lol.

Did he also tell you to invest all your money with Madoff?

Do not abandon your Microsoft studies unless it is something you do not want to do.
Which brings me to this point... if you need to ask wether or not you should stop studying, you should probably stop because it obviously isn't interesting you enough.

networker050184

jryantech wrote: »

Lol.

Did he also tell you to invest all your money with Madoff?

I agree with everyone else, this guy is probably biased or misinformed.

eMeS

Although I don't agree with what you've been told, for the most part this scenario has happened at least once in the industry.

Does anyone remember DEC?

Just saying...it's not totally out of the realm of possibility...

MS

skrpune

even if Microsoft dies in 10 years (and that's a pretty big IF right now), that doesn't mean that having MS certifications NOW won't be useful in the meantime. Planning for what's going to happen 10 years down the line is great, but it doesn't do squat for you in the interim.

I say go after what interests you now and make your certification plan for what you see yourself doing over the course of the next couple to few years, tops...IT changes SO rapidly that you can't really prepare all that well for what will happen 10 years from now, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

FluxCapacitor

I'm interested in Microsoft, it's just that I would like to know from people with experience if it's going to go under in the next couple years because I'm interested in all parts of computer networking not just the Microsoft part.

Slowhand

Encounters like these are, unfortunately, the kinds of things that hurt Linux's credibility as a viable competitor in the market Microsoft has created. It was the same in the late 90's during the dot-com boom, every Linux-zealot proclaimed that the year 2000 would be the day Microsoft crashed and burned; the following decade, of course, would be a "utopia of open-source". Microsoft isn't going anywhere for a long, long time. That's not to say that Linux/Unix skills aren't useful, you can get a lot of work if you're up to date on them as well.

Go for your Vista and Server 2008 certs and knock 'em out of the park. After that, check out Linux+. That way, you'll be far more qualified to talk about the state of the industry and what software to use than some tech that works for a high school.

petedude

skrpune wrote: »

even if Microsoft dies in 10 years (and that's a pretty big IF right now), that doesn't mean that having MS certifications NOW won't be useful in the meantime. Planning for what's going to happen 10 years down the line is great, but it doesn't do squat for you in the interim.

I'll second that. Linux certifications are good to have, but don't bet the bank on them just yet.

jryantech

eMeS wrote: »

Although I don't agree with what you've been told, for the most part this scenario has happened at least once in the industry.

Does anyone remember DEC?

Just saying...it's not totally out of the realm of possibility...

MS

With the amount of money that Bill Gates has, do you honestly think he would let Microsoft burn? He could make Microsoft products open source for the next 10 years and still pay for all expenses.

...Is it obvious that I am a fan of this company?

I love Linux as much as the next guy but as people on this thread have pointed it, it is not the cash cow right now. Maybe in 10-15 years it will be, but to look that far ahead in the Techology industry is pretty ridiculous.

/endrant

tiersten

jryantech wrote: »

I love Linux as much as the next guy but as people on this thread have pointed it, it is not the cash cow right now.

Linux is popular but mostly for servers and embedded devices. It has limited penetration to the desktop market currently excluding the various super cheap desktops and netbooks.

HeroPsycho

Microsoft server and OS markets are very strong right now in general with debatably a drop due to Vista, which Win7 is on track to correct.

There's no evidence whatsoever Microsoft is losing share in either of those markets that's of any significance.

brad-

Stotic wrote: »

I wouldn't listen to some random 'high school' technician. Sometimes techies who love Linux blindside themselves and try to force it upon everyone else.

+1

It may lose some marketshare over time for Apple and Linux as home users migrate that way, but I dont see either of them taking a bite into the MS marketshare in the business world.

itdaddy

I do think Linux is coming..not fast but it is coming....I know a lot of people/members of our credit union (since I am IT suporrt I know this) are using UBUNTU linux desktop and love it
and believe me FREE spreads fast!

but I hate to say this.but MS$$ will be around along time..they have the money...to make
superior products and people want OPTIONS more than saving money!

my 2cents

and MS$$ is the KING of options!

msethk

FluxCapacitor wrote: »

I'm interested in Microsoft, it's just that I would like to know from people with experience if it's going to go under in the next couple years because I'm interested in all parts of computer networking not just the Microsoft part.

If your interested in "networking" you need to be studying Cisco. But as everyone has said. Microsoft is not going anywhere. Ever. That's like saying everyone will quit going to Wal-Mart and go to ??? well I dunno, but it ain't gonna happen!

BradleyHU

lol...damn, dude is hella biased. i mean, i'm not a big proponent of m$, but i just dont see that happening. and i'm someone who's used windows since i was like 12 and Windows 3.1x was out. I've started to gravitate away from m$ lately, and i'm starting to familiarize myself with Linux, and Unix.

msteinhilber

If this person doesn't think you should become certified in ________ because ________ might not be around in 10 years (obviously Microsoft will be around in 10 years), then by their logic - you should NEVER become certified in anything technology.

amp2030

MS is pretty big now, not going anywhere any time soon. Even if it did lose some of its huge market share, it would stay relevant for a while.

eMeS

jryantech wrote: »

With the amount of money that Bill Gates has, do you honestly think he would let Microsoft burn? He could make Microsoft products open source for the next 10 years and still pay for all expenses.

...Is it obvious that I am a fan of this company?

I love Linux as much as the next guy but as people on this thread have pointed it, it is not the cash cow right now. Maybe in 10-15 years it will be, but to look that far ahead in the Techology industry is pretty ridiculous.

/endrant

Not sure what the rant is about...I pretty clearly said that I didn't agree with what he had been told.

However, nothing is impossible, and you can verify that by looking at recent history. DEC was once a huge company with a lot of cash and a strong product line....look where they are now. I don't know how old you are, so maybe you weren't in the industry then and didn't watch it happen.

MS

Daniel333

Linux has a fan boy base. Think comic book/manga fan boys, but with software. Take what they say with a grain of salt.

Honestly... think computers will look like they do today 10 years from now? Of course not. As the industry changes there is no reason to expect Microsoft will not adapt.

As far as your Vista/MCSA go for it! It's fun and the technologies you come across will be around for years to come.

Turgon

eMeS wrote: »

Not sure what the rant is about...I pretty clearly said that I didn't agree with what he had been told.

However, nothing is impossible, and you can verify that by looking at recent history. DEC was once a huge company with a lot of cash and a strong product line....look where they are now. I don't know how old you are, so maybe you were in the industry then and didn't watch it happen.

MS

DEC?

Dec Alpha, DECNET, Distributex, VAX VMS. Yup worked with and supported all those around the fringes over the years. Certainly seemingly unheard of things can and do indeed happen. As for linux..its making inroads finding it's way into the application tier of datacentres offering customer facing things, replacing Solaris in more than a few shops for that sort of thing and as a proxy. Companies still like the Vendor support of Sun however so they have someone to beat up when things go wrong. So uptake is less rapid in critical middleware and backoffice where the big databases grind away.

Driver support for linux can be a pain for enterprise solutions.
On the desktop, still a way to go. Regardless of the this... as things change there will be plenty of shops looking to integrate things like Linux with MS or other platforms. Plenty of integration and migration work to go around for years I should imagine so MS skills needed for the forseeable.

tiersten

Daniel333 wrote: »

Linux has a fan boy base. Think comic book/manga fan boys, but with software. Take what they say with a grain of salt.

You can say that for everything. There are plenty of Microsoft fanboys out there who think that Microsoft can do no wrong and spread FUD. There are people out there who are the same about Apple. Whatever it is, there are people out there who will be a little too zealous in their championing.

undomiel

Think of it this way. If Microsoft has died off within 10 years then a lot of people will be moving on to whatever the next great thing is, which will leave a niche to be filled for supporting those legacy systems out there of all those businesses that upgrade ever 10-15 years. Niches can be good things.

tiersten

undomiel wrote: »

Think of it this way. If Microsoft has died off within 10 years then a lot of people will be moving on to whatever the next great thing is, which will leave a niche to be filled for supporting those legacy systems out there of all those businesses that upgrade ever 10-15 years. Niches can be good things.

Other people are welcome to the niche of supporting Windows 95 machines

zen master

FluxCapacitor wrote: »

I met my high school's network technician guy today and I told him that I plan to pursue certifications in Vista and Server 2008 after I complete my MCSA. He told me that it would be a waste of my time because the industry is moving towards linux. He said that in about 10 years Microsoft's control of the market will be gone. Is this true? Should I just abandon my Microsoft studies?

Look, I love linux to death, and I'm typing this up from my ubuntu box, but let's be realistic here. It is highly unlikely that you will convert so many users in such a short period of time. At any rate, how is it a waste of time getting a CERTIFICATION (for crying out loud, it's not a 4 year degree) because in ten years it won't be as valuable, hell, in a few years you'll have to recertify anyway. His logic is beyond ridiculous.

eMeS

Turgon wrote: »

DEC?

Dec Alpha, DECNET, Distributex, VAX VMS. Yup worked with and supported all those around the fringes over the years. Certainly seemingly unheard of things can and do indeed happen. As for linux..its making inroads finding it's way into the application tier of datacentres offering customer facing things, replacing Solaris in more than a few shops for that sort of thing and as a proxy. Companies still like the Vendor support of Sun however so they have someone to beat up when things go wrong. So uptake is less rapid in critical middleware and backoffice where the big databases grind away.

Driver support for linux can be a pain for enterprise solutions.
On the desktop, still a way to go. Regardless of the this... as things change there will be plenty of shops looking to integrate things like Linux with MS or other platforms. Plenty of integration and migration work to go around for years I should imagine so MS skills needed for the forseeable.

I think you guys might be missing my point. I don't see any reason why getting the MS skills is not a useful thing, and I don't think that linux is some nail in the coffin for MS. I agree about the promise of linux over the years not being in line with the associated difficulties. Perhaps reading my original response to the OP would help?

However, it's really irrelevant whether it's Linux or Enterprise Nut Sack OS or whatever.

My point is, sometimes disruptive technologies come along, and sometimes large successful companies with strong product lines don't adapt well to the disruptive technologies, and as a result don't survive long.

I do not think that this is what the 'high school' technician was thinking...sounds more like to me he is just a linux bigot....

However, it is entirely within the realm of possibility that any company that is leading the pack is simply a memory in 10 years...

Please be clear what my point is, and also please understand that my example is only one of many; and at one time their products were very common....

MS

HeroPsycho

eMeS wrote: »

However, it's really irrelevant whether it's Linux or Enterprise Nut Sack OS or whatever.

Okay, so if Enterprise Nut Sack OS, the dominant OS 10 years from now, dies 10 years after that, will its users scream, "Ow, my balls!!!"

(Anything for an Idiocracy quote!!! )

eMeS

HeroPsycho wrote: »

Okay, so if Enterprise Nut Sack OS, the dominant OS 10 years from now, dies 10 years after that, will its users scream, "Ow, my balls!!!"

(Anything for an Idiocracy quote!!! )

Aw, great movie...that's so awesome that you worked that in there....

MS

FluxCapacitor

Thank you for all of your help. This was very informative. I never planned on actually listening to the guy, I'm just going to respectfully disagree with him. I'm finishing up my MCSA and after that I plan to go after MCITP in either Enterprise Support or Exchange 2007.

I didn't mean to piss anybody off by this post, I simply wanted to know what you guys thought of this outrageous comment that the technician said to me.

Anyways,

Thanks