Is it the end of PC era?

ptilsen

They also generally don't pay for software and an iPhone costs around 10% of their per-capita GDP (few carrier subsidies in China). In the context of the direction of computer technology, which is generally revolved around for-profit hardware and software companies, I don't think following trends in China is going to be particularly pertinent. Following trends in the US, Europe, especially the Anglosphere, is generally what leads you towards where the market is heading.

Not that I disagree -- iPads are toys that double over as okay tools, and PCs aren't disappearing.

tpatt100

The problem for tech manufacturers though is China's labor costs are growing pretty fast to keep up with demand. Factories in China are looking for cheaper labor in China and now Vietnam. Wages are going up there and dropping significantly here. So companies would be ignorant to ignore China as a growth opportunity

ptilsen

I don't disagree there, either, but I still wouldn't look to China for trends in the computer industry... yet.

yoshiiaki

Well I guess one problem we have is ambiguity of the question. There is PC as in it's generally accepted form, a computer, the general public view, a computer using some version of Windows, or it's acronym term (and what I think of when i hear PC) a Personal Computer. Then I also read that someone refers to "Desktop" as anything being used at a desk. So...there could be some problems there when people are arguing/stating their opinions.

But for me I would say that no one uses a PC at work, due to it being work property and not your personal property, hence my interpretation on the question. It would be a work computer/station or even just a desktop/laptop. Personal computers will always be around, just change shapes and sizes, maybe the next generation will be tablets, and eventually would be wrist watches or implants in the body. Desktops, I define as a standard computer, I would say won't be, I would give them another 2-3 years of safe ground and then a decline at that point. Many people I know, that I would consider a "general user" have or could easily migrate to laptop only or even tablet and/or phone combo. For gamers, there is OnLive. I haven't been following them although heard they were bought out by someone...but regardless the idea is there. If someone could make it so cloud gaming would work to the level that anyone could play any game without lag (with the exception of their end of the connection) then who would really need anything beyond a laptop. At that point you can use any old laptop and play your games at will as all the power-hungry stuff would be done on the other end. I would then go out and purchase a laptop based on battery life and screen resolution, nothing else would really matter to me. If OnLive succeeds or at least the idea, then I don't see why we couldn't have other power intensive programs like AutoCAD be done in the cloud as well.

I personally am not a fan of the cloud stuff, I don't even use online storage like dropbox or google docs. But I have a feeling that with how quickly technology advances these days, that it shouldn't take too long before desktops are out of the picture.

tpatt100

I don't see why something intensive like CAD couldn't just be a "workstation" requirement. The whole point of virtualization, thin clients, tablets, etc for some companies/schools was reduce on site labor costs. At the university my wife works at which is the size of a city it made sense to covert everybody to Citrix because you could get stuck in traffic trying to get across campus to handle an on site support call.

Keep the applications that actually make the CPU and hard drive do actual work on local workstations on good hardware and let the majority of everybody else who use web apps and Office use the virtual clients. It still condenses the majority of the workers for central management and reduces the need for local tech support.

pumbaa_g

Has anyone thought about last mile connectivity. The cloud/virtualization is here and its great but how do we get all that horsepower to the end user? At the end of the day the last mile connectivity will be the bottleneck, thats where the bottleneck is at now. In my example, my ISP offers a 2 Mbps ADSL2+ solution that means that my consumption of Cloud resources would be limited to this amount. Assuming that in many other parts of the world connectivity is still slower, how do these devices connect to the VDI Infrastructure/Cloud to take advantage of this.
In the near future we may all be connected by Optical Fiber and get 500 Mbps but till then we need to think if we replace a desktop with all the processing power resulting from years of innovation with an ARM Based processor which is a fraction of that processing power and get stuck with a lousy internet connection/dead spot what will you do?

drefoq80

My question is .. are people still building PC's? coz if yes how can u say pc is dead?

N2IT

blargoe wrote: »

Most IT staff and select power users will continue to require traditional computer hardware for the forseeable future.

Companies with less complex IT requirements will be, by and large, devoid of traditional computer hardware in 5 years, in favor of tablet/smartphone, and public/hybrid IT services for email and collaboration.

For everyone else, I'm already seeing a move toward terminals/VDI for the "worker drone" type of users... warehouse employees that just need a shortcut to the WMS, finance users that only use Excel and the ERP system, people that only use 2 or 3 apps for 95% of their work.

This is right on the money

Finance, HR, Accounting, Sales, Marketing, IT (some portions), can all easily transition to a terminal and guess what it makes sense. PC are going away they have already started to the data is out there it's one google search away.

Mobility and VDI is the future. Sure you'll have engineers who will require beastly machines to process monster java apps,but overall it makes 0 sense to purchase a desktop when a VDI terminal will do the trick and all the data is stored on the server.

Storage space can be determined through department and roles. 10 gb limit for a share for an example and you can accurately project how much space will be required. Not to mention all the data is captured on the server so if a salesman decided to leave or a scientist wants to jump to another company that intellectual property stays with the company.

I personally think it's silly to think this isn't the future. Where there is smoke there is fire and I have seen a lot of smoke. I honestly think a company is insane to not consider transitioning to this technology.

dave330i

N2IT wrote: »

Mobility and VDI is the future. Sure you'll have engineers who will require beastly machines to process monster java apps,but overall it makes 0 sense to purchase a desktop when a VDI terminal will do the trick and all the data is stored on the server.

CPU usage isn't a big deal for VDI. The biggest technical problems are storage, bandwidth & GPU. Storage problem is boot/login/logoff storm. You can overcome that with enough front end cache. Then there are bandwidth hungry apps like video conferencing. That can be overcome as datacenters migrate to 10gb+ backbones. Then there's GPU intensive apps like CAD & gaming. Servers don't do GPU. You could offload GPU to the client, but thin/zero clients don't do GPU either.

DevilWAH

I have seen some VMware VDI and Citrix set ups that really make you sit up and take note. What is most impressive is the very small bandwith required these days. And the manor in which you can build a desk top for a user from specific components. Application X needs java version Y, not an issue, build the package and distributed it out. not only are the desktops virtulised, but the apps are virtulised on the virtual desktop. And this makes for a very flexible setup.

even beastly machine don't need to be local, things like Amazons elastic computing can provide a vast amount of CPU and memory power delivered as and when you need it. A lot of our mathematical molders make use of amazon, the develops models on there own desktops, and then transfer them to the cloud where they run on virtual systems with hundreds of CPU's and shed loads of memory. They might pay £200 for a week of usage on Amazons hardware, when to purchase the hardware ourselves would be several £100K.

I don't see bandwidth as an issue. Indeed for some application the cloud and virtulisation will improve things. the one thing they have to get past is latency issues. Any one who plays games knows this is a issue, even today some one playing in the UK, will suffer a disadvantage when playing against people in the US due to latency issues (assuming he game server is located in the US). For games requiring fast reaction times like FPS, the few extra millisecond of latency are noticeable, as are glitches and hiccups in the network. This is even more in business where financial traders will spend billions on reducing the latency of a link by a few millisecond.

I think CROME OS, is where a lot of devices will head, HTML is a very generic protocol that is supported across almost every device out there. If you produce an app that can be presented via it, then you have a access to every one of those devices. I see a merger some where in the middle of things like the Apple/android apps, and traditional desktop where we end up.

DevilWAH

dave330i wrote: »

Then there's GPU intensive apps like CAD & gaming. Servers don't do GPU.

There are companies out there that offer servers that can support CUDA (GPU Processing) via the cloud.

tpatt100

drefoq80 wrote: »

My question is .. are people still building PC's? coz if yes how can u say pc is dead?

I built one recently but the last time I did was over 8 years ago.

W Stewart

I don't see too many employers replacing workstations with tablets when your job involves sitting at a desk typing all day. I've seen a decent amount of companies that have company laptops but those have yet to replace the desktop pc in the work environment. At most I see them being integrated into some work environments.

pumbaa_g

I have seen a few Tablets given to Exec's but mostly used as a mobile device and less of the mainstay. For more challenging tasks they will have a laptop as well. For the most Laptop and VPN remains the order of the day and maybe for a few unlucky ones emails/OC on phone. For the front line Desktops still very much relevant.
A few major advantages I foresee with VDI Infrastructure will be
1. Security (greater protection for IP)
2. Cost advantage (no 3 year replacements/data loss/repair/Only Cost to Company will be the connectivity charges (Get whichever device you want)

dave330i

pumbaa_g wrote: »

A few major advantages I foresee with VDI Infrastructure will be
1. Security (greater protection for IP)
2. Cost advantage (no 3 year replacements/data loss/repair/Only Cost to Company will be the connectivity charges (Get whichever device you want)

There's improved security with VDI, but cost advantage is mostly marketing gimmick.

The other advantage of VDI is portability.

tpatt100

I could see a cost advantage with VDI for mid sized companies. When I worked for the City we used to price out maxed out desktops because the City did the IT budget stupidly and didn't have a centralized budget for department machines. They didn't do regular roll outs they waited until it broke so systems were specced differently all over the place.

Of course back then Citrix licensing on top of Microsoft's term serv kinda killed the cost savings.

phoeneous

Roguetadhg wrote: »

PC gaming is dead.

That will never happen. Ever.

ptilsen

Is a thin client that hooks up to a personal virtual desktop running Windows not a PC? Does the bulk of the hardware being server side really change the definition?

When I read about "the end of the PC era", it's suggestions that Microsoft and Intel are going to be marginalized to the point of irrelevancy. That we'll all use iOS or Android and apps to access everything we need. I still see no rational argument here -- we are moving towards infrequent PC replacements and supplementing PCs with other devices, but not ceasing to use PCs entirely. I'm talking about at home, where you still probably need a full-blown computer for something and you probably can't use a thin client to get to a virtual desktop.

If the argument is the corporate world is switching to VDI and that we won't get workstations, well, I guess there isn't much question to that. There will still be workstations, but the industry is certainly trending away from them. I just don't see this as the end of the PC. From my standpoint, VDI is still PCs. The fact that they're virtual and accessible from multiple devices doesn't change that. VDI is possible because for most users, a good virtual desktop setup is indistinguishable from a desktop computer.

DevilWAH

Ptilsen, I think there's a difference between a virtual desktop, and something like running Google Chrome OS, with apps. With Windows the OS and the App are tied together. While with Chrome OS model the OS is removed from the equation. The "Desktop" element of the PC disappears, and at this point I think the "PC" element is also lost.

I think once every application is completely delivered virtual, you no longer have a PC, because your device is no longer "Personal to you". At the moment the Device is the thing that brings every thing together, in most cases you still need to "set your self up" on a device before it will work for you. But that is changing and more and more is the idea of a "presence" where the data follows the person not the device.

I do agree that to some extent there will for a long time be devices that emulate the Desktop PC, well after the item we once knew is dead and buried. But I think the way in which it is delivered will be so different from the original idea that it would be misleading to give them the same name.

chrisone

N2IT wrote: »

Yes

A percentage of the workforce has been identified to transition to WYSE terminals from desktops and laptops in 2013 - Pilot and 2014 rollout.

I think so far they have buy in from ~65% of the business.

Lower cost per resource
Knowledge retention
Less cost to maintain

Most of our salespersons don't have PC anymore. They opted out - they could either have a mobile phone and mobile device (iPad) or a laptop. Almost all of the salespersons went with the mobile technology.

Actually same here at the company I work for. We have been running wyse terminals for the majority of the call centers. We have also move many normal users to VDIs and virtualized their environments. We still havent brought in mobile devices like iPads or tablet yet. I feel we shouldn't until we have some form of device control like cisco ISE. Other than that, laptops stay as our first and only choice for mobility for now.

About7Narwhal

I'm afraid that in the next few months / years, we will see a move from paid applications to paid subscriptions. No longer will you go to the store and buy a copy of Office, you will pay $7.99 a month for a basic Microsoft Subscription that allows you a few basic applications. The next subscription class gives you more applications, etc etc. It will make piracy very difficult and that is what most software companies care about anymore, who cares if a few legitimate customers are put off by it. May as well go buy your thin clients now...

Roguetadhg

Looks like I'll be stuck with the lower versions then

W Stewart

About7Narwhal wrote: »

I'm afraid that in the next few months / years, we will see a move from paid applications to paid subscriptions. No longer will you go to the store and buy a copy of Office, you will pay $7.99 a month for a basic Microsoft Subscription that allows you a few basic applications. The next subscription class gives you more applications, etc etc. It will make piracy very difficult and that is what most software companies care about anymore, who cares if a few legitimate customers are put off by it. May as well go buy your thin clients now...

The rest of us will continue using libreoffice and other opensource software.

blargoe

dave330i wrote: »

CPU usage isn't a big deal for VDI. The biggest technical problems are storage, bandwidth & GPU. Storage problem is boot/login/logoff storm. You can overcome that with enough front end cache. Then there are bandwidth hungry apps like video conferencing. That can be overcome as datacenters migrate to 10gb+ backbones. Then there's GPU intensive apps like CAD & gaming. Servers don't do GPU. You could offload GPU to the client, but thin/zero clients don't do GPU either.

Dead on.

As the mainstream attempts to move toward VDI, I see the issues you outlined above (the real issue being, poor planning, lack of understanding, and unwillingness to spend on the correct infrastructure) as being the "virtualization causes problems" argument of this decade, much like poor design of VM infrastructure for production servers was blamed on "virtualization" in the recent past.

paul78

I don't really know much about VDI but I thought that there was already existing technology on the market that supports GPU requirements for VDI. Doesn't PCoIP with remote GPU access resolve that?

I always thought that the only limitation to VDI was bandwidth to the clients.

sratakhin

Bandwidth is not a big deal. I tested Citrix VDI-in-a-Box playing a full screen video in 1366*768, and it only needed about 2 mbit/s. Even a 10/100 switch should be able to handle a few dozens clients. And in typical usages (browsing, typing, whatever), the client only needed like 100-200 kbit/s.

On the other hand, fast storage is a must. When I start more than 30 VDI desktops at the same time, it takes almost half an hour. Our SAN is pretty slow though.

About7Narwhal

I think this article is a very valid argument for the future of computers when faced with an ever growing tablet market:

[h=1]Why the desktop PC may see a comeback in the mobile era - InfoWorld[/h]

ptilsen

I agree a lot with that author's point. I'm not finding myself wanting to get rid of my desktop thanks to tablets, and I don't know of anyone -- not one person -- who is. It's laptops that are becoming less necessary. Even at work, we're talking about getting desktops instead of new laptops, using iPads or laptop/tablet hybrids to replace our laptops.

On that note, I think we've yet to see the impact that hybrids are going to make. Convertible ultrabooks and Surface Pro will just be the start. I think we'll see a huge shift to hybrid laptop/tablets. Right now, I do still find myself bring a laptop anytime I'm going to be doing a significant amount of typing.

No matter what they come out with, I'll always go back to dual widescreen monitors and tons of horsepower on my desktop to get things done.

DevilWAH

One large bank I worked in had gone completely thin client, and it was great. Most desks had duel screen set up, and to walk in sit down at any desk log in and have your desk top how you left it was great. And because it virtual desktop and not a roaming profile, its instance to switch to another work station.

you found yourself walking round the desk to a work mate, and flicking back and forth between there session and yours as you worked on some thing. It was almost as quick as Alt-Tabbing, but rather than swapping apps you could flick between users..

I see a time when you will be working on some thing on a thin client machine, with you "ipad" on the desk next to you, and it will be a case of dragging and dropping it down to the ipad, then getting home and flicking it from the ipad to your home office screen.

We see it already with the like of "presence" in unified communication such as Lync, where the system delivers you points of contact such as voice,email,video and IM to what ever device you happen to have on you at the time. I see Applications going the same way, follwoing you around rather than needed you to be sat at a specific machine. However the current method of delivering applications via a desktop/pc does not really support this. So there will have to be a big change away from horse power under the desk to horse power in the cloud.

N2IT

@ DevilWaH I agree about your file transfer scenario. I could easily see something like that taking place. That would be awesome!