Is it the end of PC era?

About7Narwhal

DevilWAH wrote: »

I see a time when you will be working on some thing on a thin client machine, with you "ipad" on the desk next to you, and it will be a case of dragging and dropping it down to the ipad, then getting home and flicking it from the ipad to your home office screen.

I agree with this to an extent. I think it will be cell phones that do this, not tablets. I believe that tablets are simply a phase. When the technology comes around where we can create ultra thin - folding monitors (similar to projector screens), the tablet will die off and be replaced by cell phones. Imagine having a cell phone that can do like the hybrid MS tablets can do, switch from app mode to desktop mode. The phone stores its laptop sized folding screen and a light projected keyboard that folds out in a single unit. It uses cellular or wifi signals to operate applications as though it were a thin client and stores data on the cloud.


Reading that, I feel kinda silly, but I do think that will be the end result of mobile technology: a true all-in-one that is small enough to fit in your pocket and is able to convert into a desktop at will.

tpatt100

I think it will be the mobile phone plugs into a dock hooked up to a monitor and keyboard. Like the Motorola dock thing did that got cancelled because nobody bought it since it was expensive and before it's time.

RobertKaucher

It seems like people are using different term interchangeably.

What does "PC" in "post PC" mean? If you mean desktop, I've not used one as a desktop for 2 years now. I have used one as a server but I never sit in front of it. I have a Kindle, an Asus Transformer, and an i7 laptop running Win8. The second I can afford to get a hybrid tablet/laptop, I will. And I do a ton of development work. No one at my work is issued a desktop.

The proof is in the pudding. Post holidays let's see what the manufacturers report in the number of sales of desktops vs "mobile" systems. But there is one indicator I think says it all: Walk in to any Best Buy, how many desktop form factor systems are they selling? Literally 3 at my local store. In the consumer market WE ARE ALREADY THERE. We are just in the lank teenager phase of the technology's life. There's confusion between the "I need a media consuming tablet that I can sometimes type on" market and the "I need a mobile PC I can also use to easily consume media" market.

W Stewart

RobertKaucher wrote: »

It seems like people are using different term interchangeably.

What does "PC" in "post PC" mean? If you mean desktop, I've not used one as a desktop for 2 years now. I have used one as a server but I never sit in front of it. I have a Kindle, an Asus Transformer, and an i7 laptop running Win8. The second I can afford to get a hybrid tablet/laptop, I will. And I do a ton of development work. No one at my work is issued a desktop.

The proof is in the pudding. Post holidays let's see what the manufacturers report in the number of sales of desktops vs "mobile" systems. But there is one indicator I think says it all: Walk in to any Best Buy, how many desktop form factor systems are they selling? Literally 3 at my local store. In the consumer market WE ARE ALREADY THERE. We are just in the lank teenager phase of the technology's life. There's confusion between the "I need a media consuming tablet that I can sometimes type on" market and the "I need a mobile PC I can also use to easily consume media" market.

That may be what I end up doing. I move around too much to use a desktop anywhere other than work. My desktop still remains the best computer in the house and if I can sit still long enough I may use it but I'm all about my laptop now and if the screen on my netbook wasn't cracked I'd be using that because it's so much lighter and easier to carry.

DevilWAH

We see laser projectors that can fit in to a phone, and with the Wii U, you can already use the controller as an extension to the tv screen.

It a bit like with a work phone. Once it was a desktop physical phone, but once we moved to ip phones the physical phone no longer has restrictions on it. It can be a physical phone, soft phone, headset, mobile phone, built in to other hardware such as the control panel of a bit of equipment. Now it's software the physical limitation of the device have been removed

eventualy it will be the same for the "PC". The device you use to access the data and apps, is just a screen and input device. The idea of table, laptop, phone, desktop will no longer be needed. Devices will get cheap and be built around what is required. I think people will continue to have multiple devices, a mobile phone is never going to replace a desktop, so people will still have both. I don't think mobile phone docking station will take over, rather you would have a cheap "dumb" laptop with built in wireless and 4g, no need to fiddle about with docking.


of course this is in countries where Mobial and wireless are wide spread and reliabable. In many countries this is not the case so for a good time yet desktops and will continue to play a role.

I swore I would not use an iPad, and yet I find my self writing this post on one, and actually finding it much better than pulling out the laptop!!! Would not want it for my work machine but at home....

Roguetadhg

Wow, This is going into a range of SciFi. I might as well throw quantum computing into the mix.

All Seriousness, I don't see us not needing some type of "PC". I'll define PC as something that can process word documents, pictures, internet, and cat videos. It's a vague term for one reason. Most of what we live with... Some Smart Phones, Tablets, Many-types of Laptops (Ultra Book, Desktop Replacements, NetBooks, chromebooks, Gaming) And then the general Beige Tower with a small TV screen looking at you. There's just too much that a "PC" can do for us, and in terms of staying connected to multiple projects, family members, homes (and appliances), I think the need is only going to get larger and not disappear.

I do think a lot of people will prefer a single interface and get used to using a single interface. As our mobile dependency grows, I think hand-held devices will definitely reap the rewards of being truely "Mobile". We're always looking to spend more time doing, and less time not. We're growing as a society that will no longer be bounded to the day/night cycle. We're surrounded by Energy Drink, lightning that mimics the day. All in the name of productivity.

Computers will stay. Whether it's on a holographic sheet, or a projector, or just smaller screens on our glasses.

sratakhin

As far as I'm concerned, tablets are great for content consumption.
PCs and Laptops are great for both content production and consumption. I'm not going to replace my dual screen setup with a tiny 7" screen, however convenient it would be.

DevilWAH

sratakhin wrote: »

As far as I'm concerned, tablets are great for content consumption.
PCs and Laptops are great for both content production and consumption. I'm not going to replace my dual screen setup with a tiny 7" screen, however convenient it would be.

How about with google glasses? Saw a demo of the the other day. No need for a screen, high def, filling your field of version. Either overlayed on the real world, or with the real world blacked out. And as for duel screen.. With google glasses you have the potential for 360 screen with windows stacked up how you want them. Duel monitors... So last year .

But honestly the demo I saw really made you think, there are still not the prettiest, but they are wearabable and function. After they have a few generation of development I can see them replacing conventional screen. Why look down at a phone / tablet when you can have the info overlayed on the real world?

10 years ago the iPad was sci-fi, now it's common place. Tablet gave us Mobial devices. The next step is get rid of the device, and intergrate the parts in to standard every day items.

ptilsen

In: Neural-interfaced quantum computers. Out: PCs and tablets.

sratakhin

DevilWAH wrote: »

How about with google glasses? Saw a demo of the the other day. No need for a screen, high def, filling your field of version. Either overlayed on the real world, or with the real world blacked out. And as for duel screen.. With google glasses you have the potential for 360 screen with windows stacked up how you want them. Duel monitors... So last year .

This technology may bring revolutionary changes, but it's too early to talk about it. Heck, people are still on Windows XP
I'm also afraid that the glasses will cause unnecessary eye strain.

DevilWAH

ptilsen wrote: »

In: Neural-interfaced quantum computers. Out: PCs and tablets.

Now that's what we want. They already read pictures from the brain of a mouse with electrodes. And used impulses to control rats and insects. Yes few years away yet, but to think it will never happen is foolish. It's just a question of when. I say 10 to 20 years till they have the finer point worked out and then 10 years after that a commercial product.

As for quantum I don't think you will getvdesk top devices for a long long time yet, but building them for real world applications is happening. So like all things it's how the pioneers develop it for the masses.


when it was asked if PC would die, maybe we need a time frame. In 200 years if humans are still around then the PCM will be long long dead.

ptilsen

I think truly replacing input devices with neural interfaces is easily 30 years away. Quantum PCs around the same, give or take a decade. I think what we'll really see take off sooner is voice control. Siri is okay, but in another ten years we'll be close to Star Trek levels.

N2IT

PT with Dragon Speech and Siri in play I agree completely.

DevilWAH

ptilsen wrote: »

I think truly replacing input devices with neural interfaces is easily 30 years away. Quantum PCs around the same, give or take a decade. I think what we'll really see take off sooner is voice control. Siri is okay, but in another ten years we'll be close to Star Trek levels.

there is a big problem with voice control. It's noisy! Imagen a office with 10 people all using voice for input, It just would not work.

Voice works for simple commands, or in personal work spaces, but it will never replace silent input devices like the keyboard in a work envirment. Even in Star Trek voice command are used, but it is no as an input device.

with neural there are all ready products in testing for disabled people. Allowing then to control a wheel chair and pointer on a screen. I think this is what will push development in this area, giving disabled people a portal to interface with computers and technology.

ptilsen

Oh I don't think voice will ever replace all other inputs, for just that reason. But voice-activated devices and voice commands can go a long way towards making many tasks much easier. In my car, for example, I have Sync and Siri and can do a lot. But both need buttons and both could use a lot of improvement. There's no fundamental reason they require buttons or any physical interaction, with the right advances.

Also, consider mouthing or whispering words. The right equipment could still detect that process it just as well as spoken. Again, that's at least ten years out, but it's possible and not unlikely.

Roguetadhg

We're forgetting on innovation that has yet to take off...

I'm still waiting on my flying cars!

I was promised this before I was born - then teased while I was Jetsons.

Forget hand-held this, and hand-held that... Flying. Cars.

DevilWAH

Roguetadhg wrote: »

We're forgetting on innovation that has yet to take off...

I'm still waiting on my flying cars!

I was promised this before I was born - then teased while I was Jetsons.

Forget hand-held this, and hand-held that... Flying. Cars.

PAL-V | Ultimate Freedom you mean you don't have one?

paul78

Is that street legal? I thought that this was the only street-legal one on the market - Terrafugia - Transition®, the Roadable Light Sport Aircraft : Home

ptilsen

I think we'll see something like this on a wide scale before flying cars. The first one is basically a helicopter with wheels; the second a street-legal plane. Planes are already flying cars, essentially. The sci-fi flying car we've all seen would need to a street-legal, wing-less VTOL sedan. I don't think there's going to be an economic justification for that for a long time, which means it will take longer to be made. Forms of vacuum transport are more practicable with existing technology and there's already an economic justification.

Roguetadhg

Like the Mag tunnels in Alpha Centauri. Best transportation in-game ever.

About7Narwhal

DevilWAH wrote: »

there is a big problem with voice control. It's noisy! Imagen a office with 10 people all using voice for input, It just would not work.

Next topic of discussion: The workplace of the future will be cube city.... Call center now, Professional standard later.

I don't think it will be that noisy. Pop in a headset or ear piece and talk like you are talking to a server when it won't work correctly. Gently and quietly.

DevilWAH

About7Narwhal wrote: »

Next topic of discussion: The workplace of the future will be cube city.... Call center now, Professional standard later.

I don't think it will be that noisy. Pop in a headset or ear piece and talk like you are talking to a server when it won't work correctly. Gently and quietly.

You clearly have a different way of talking to naughty server than me

now this is where we are heading, The Machine Stops - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, interesting little story written in 1909! I tell you working from home is the first step towards it

RobertKaucher

Roguetadhg wrote: »

Wow, This is going into a range of SciFi. I might as well throw quantum computing into the mix.

All Seriousness, I don't see us not needing some type of "PC". I'll define PC as something that can process word documents, pictures, internet, and cat videos.

If that is your definition of PC, then no this is not the end of the PC era. I mean PC as something more akin to a desktop where the idea of doing work is location based. You sit in your cube at your desk. Now-a-days the more flexible form factors are allowing work to go anyplace and really redefine "mobile".

About7Narwhal

It usually starts off with "Come on baby, don't be that way.." or "You can do it!" ... It usually escalates from there. Have you read this book? Looks like it could be a good read. And I am sorry for being so far off topic...

I do have a question about the Google Glasses; does anyone think that Google will eventually turn into Minority Report? They track everything you do already, before long they will have a way to determine intent and bust us for crimes we were thinking about doing. (again, may as well put it out there while we are talking about star trek and such)

Roguetadhg

I think at that point it comes to what are you doing. I don't think a desktop computer - terminal or not, will go away. Sitting at a desk, pull out the laptop - I would consider that a desktop computer, at that point. Afterall, there are laptops considered as "Desktop Replacements". I wouldn't qualify those laptops as Mobile. I wouldn't want to try to stand and use them with one hand! Although I'm sure my Left arm would get a lot of exercise that way:

MSPSHAY2003

hmm this is a good question?