Incoming RECESSION?

volfkhat

Hola Amigos!

i'm hearing more & more folks starting to talk about an inevitable Recession that's coming.

Granted, i'm Not hearing this from "everyone" i interact with.....  but i've definitely noticed an uptick.


Do any of you guys think it's gonna happen?
If so... how soon?
Do you have any contingency plans in place?
Are any of you looking forward to it?


On a selfish level... I'm kinda hoping it does happen.
i'm tired of working (been here 8 months), and ready for another vacation & travel!



But on a (slightly) more serious note...
i think the Fed's Monetary Policies (over the past 12 years) have set us up for some Painful Days ahead.
The era of EZ money is dead.

I can see a substantial Crash in the Markets (40%-50% devaluation from their All time Highs).
I can see Unemployment rate growing over 7%-8% percent.
I can see this being a Global issue.

But Not certain if that will 'reset' the price of housing in the country.
and Not certain 'how long' the recession would last.

Oh well....  ask'in for a friend!
:]

trojin

I'm just in process of moving to another job. Again 
So hope there won't be crash for another few months at least

JDMurray

It wouldn't hurt to plan what personal austerity measures you will need to implement to ride out a 4-7 year economic downturn. If it doesn't occur then you haven't lost anything.

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” –General Dwight D. Eisenhower

UnixGuy

Recession is not incoming it's already here

the plan is never leverage, and keep your cash. It's not a good time to invest but this isn't a financial advice and please don't listen to me.

Nothing much we can do really

SteveLavoie

In a recession, please consider job stability as a greater assets than higher salary somewhere more uncertain.  Keep your cash, save, and dont get in debt. 

If you want to be ready, consider paying all your credit card debt or other debt, build your emergency fund. 

This way, you should be ok.  We are lucky to be in IT as we will be less touched than many other domain.

JDMurray

UnixGuy said:

Recession is not incoming it's already here

In the USA, a recession is officially declared as a result of many factors, including two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. 1Q22 was GDP negative; we'll (officially) know about 2Q22 in mid-July. Mix that in with unemployment figures, consumer sales, industrial production, etc. and you've got a ball of obfuscation with half the financial analysts disagreeing with the conclusions of the other half.

Recession Definition at Investopedia

UnixGuy

@JDMurray so it's not official yet?

JDMurray

Not according to the economists. The US consumer is presently feeling the economic pinch big-time, but that's caused by a lot more than just an economic recession.

volfkhat

Cools!

Any guesses on how long it will last?

volfkhat

SteveLavoie said:

... We are lucky to be in IT as we will be less touched than many other domain.

I'm Not certain that's how Recessions actually work...
   

volfkhat

UnixGuy said:

Recession is not incoming it's already here

the plan is never leverage, and keep your cash. It's not a good time to invest but this isn't a financial advice and please don't listen to me.

Completely agree with ya!
I'm holding my Dry Powder until markets fall back below Pre-Pandemic levels

E Double U

volfkhat said:

SteveLavoie said:

... We are lucky to be in IT as we will be less touched than many other domain.

I'm Not certain that's how Recessions actually work...

I like to think some professions actually might be more recession proof than others (not 100%, but still in a better position) similar to some careers that were better positioned to weather the covid-storm than others. 

Very far from an expert opinion though. Just my $0.02

SteveLavoie

I like to think some professions actually might be more recession proof than others (not 100%, but still in a better position) similar to some careers that were better positioned to weather the covid-storm than others. 

Very far from an expert opinion though. Just my $0.02

I am sharing the same $0.02.  The next recession will be "good" for IT people. Digital transformation will continue and accelerate to help company survive the recession, cybersecurity issue will continue to grow, e-commerce will still be growing(slower) compared to brick and mortar shop. Also good IT people are rare and hard to find, if you are one, no worry for you, recession or not you will do fine or at least much better than the average guys.  

TechGromit

volfkhat said:

Do any of you guys think it's gonna happen?
If so... how soon?
Do you have any contingency plans in place?
Are any of you looking forward to it?

Do I think it's going to happen?

Of course it's going to happen. The economy has been a cycle of boom and bust since 1792, pretty much since banks were created that loaned money to borrowers. Banks of course go farther back much further as far back as 2334 BC, but there impact on a countries economy was far less of an issue, since loaning / borrowing was far more limited.

If so... how soon?

Anyone's guess. Just as every given boom bust cycle, there are those that think the next recession is overdue and others that are still bullish on the economy. A example would be RV sales, for the last 4 recessions the fall of RV sales for 2 to 3 years in a row have always resulted in a recession the next year. So when RV sales fell in 2016 to 2019 this pretty much guaranteed that this indicator predicted 2020 would be the start of next recession, based on past performances. This however didn't hold true. 2020 and 2021 were banner years for RV sales. This was mostly due to the Covid, but the point remains, that an indicator that predicted the next recession was completely wrong.         

Do you have any contingency plans in place?

No, my position / company isn't closely tied the state of the economy. This of course doesn't always hold true former owner the power plant I worked at was HEAVILY invested in Bear Steins, and when Bear's went under in 2008, so did all the cash the company had onhand. Which made for several turbulent months for the company.

Also other than my mortgage, I have little to no debt, no Car Payment, No Credit Card debt. I also have some money in the bank and in stocks to weather financial upheaval in the short term. 

Are any of you looking forward to it?

Neutral, I'm neither looking forward to it or dreading it.

 

TechGromit

UnixGuy said:

the plan is never leverage, and keep your cash. It's not a good time to invest but this isn't a financial advice and please don't listen to me.

I disagree. The BEST time to invest is when everyone else is running from the markets. When the market recovers and everyone is throwing money back into the market, that's when it's not a good time to investment. Fear and Greed rule the market, you need to know when to fear and when to be greedy. If you following the herd, you probably doing it wrong.  

UnixGuy

TechGromit said:

UnixGuy said:

the plan is never leverage, and keep your cash. It's not a good time to invest but this isn't a financial advice and please don't listen to me.

I disagree. The BEST time to invest is when everyone else is running from the markets. When the market recovers and everyone is throwing money back into the market, that's when it's not a good time to investment. Fear and Greed rule the market, you need to know when to fear and when to be greedy. If you following the herd, you probably doing it wrong.  

I did that during covid, however, now I believe this is different. Anyway, not a financial adviser so best not to listen to me in this area

volfkhat

SteveLavoie said:

i am sharing the same $0.02.  The next recession will be "good" for IT people. Digital transformation will continue and accelerate to help company survive the recession, cybersecurity issue will continue to grow, e-commerce will still be growing(slower) compared to brick and mortar shop. Also good IT people are rare and hard to find, if you are one, no worry for you, recession or not you will do fine or at least much better than the average guys.  

Bold Claims
Saying that you work in "IT"... is a fairly broad statement imo.   

but i get the gist of your 2 cents.

but on the otherhand... Facebook just laidoff 12% of their force.... are they an IT company?
or maybe they just let go the Janitors, Chefs, Therapists, Recruiting dept, Marketing,  and the like....
/shrug

UnixGuy said:

i did that during covid, however, now I believe this is different. Anyway, not a financial adviser so best not to listen to me in this area

Same.
Im hoping the DJIA makes its way down 30% from ATH.

To be continued!

Chevel

I feel like it's already happened I cannot find a job at all.  Going to get a lot worse that's for sure with a lot a people in my situation. 

volfkhat

Chevel said:

I feel like it's already happened I cannot find a job at all.  Going to get a lot worse that's for sure with a lot a people in my situation. 

What exactly is your situation?

Somebody just said the recession is gonna be "good" for IT people.
i obviously disagree...

trojin

I can see stable decrease in job offers in last few weeks. My current company frozen new hires.

Chevel

volfkhat said:

Chevel said:

I feel like it's already happened I cannot find a job at all.  Going to get a lot worse that's for sure with a lot a people in my situation. 

What exactly is your situation?

Somebody just said the recession is gonna be "good" for IT people.
i obviously disagree...

Being an unaccounted unemployable IT bum.  

I believe for certain branches of IT I can agree but not all. Imo.

volfkhat

Chevel said:

Being an unaccounted unemployable IT bum.  
I believe for certain branches of IT I can agree but not all. Imo.

i hear ya Bud.

i just meant... what "area" of IT do you have experience in?
Do you have an AA degree? Bachelors?  Certiifcations?  Tons of EXP?
Rural town? big City?

E Double U

In The Netherlands there appears to be more vacancies than people to fill them. I just received a job offer last week and my current employer has trouble keeping people. Just so many opportunities available. 

https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/13/dutch-employers-facing-tightest-labor-market-recorded-history

TechGromit

E Double U said:

In The Netherlands there appears to be more vacancies than people to fill them. I just received a job offer last week and my current employer has trouble keeping people. Just so many opportunities available. 

It's the same with my employer, more job openings that we can fill with quality candidates. A few of my former co-workers left for more $, but I believe they are short sighted.  It's not all about the $ in your paycheck, it's good low cost medical benefits, yearly bonus, pension, stock options, 401k match, profit sharing, and very stable employment environment. 

TechGromit

trojin said:

I can see stable decrease in job offers in last few weeks. My current company frozen new hires.

Interesting, what industry your company in?

Chevel

volfkhat said:

Chevel said:

Being an unaccounted unemployable IT bum.  
I believe for certain branches of IT I can agree but not all. Imo.

i hear ya Bud.

i just meant... what "area" of IT do you have experience in?
Do you have an AA degree? Bachelors?  Certiifcations?  Tons of EXP?
Rural town? big City?

Was in cyber. I worked from help desk all the way to cyber in about 10 years. All on the federal contracting side so lots of layoffs and inconsistencies. Only have an AA, security+, had CCNA ( but let it expire since I didn't like network too much)  I live in a ruralish area but there's lots of military here, just have to travel about 2 hours to get there. 

I'd love to be in a more stable IT market like software dev since I do like to code and there's always jobs available. I just happen to get into cyber by chance.  

trojin

TechGromit said:

trojin said:

I can see stable decrease in job offers in last few weeks. My current company frozen new hires.

Interesting, what industry your company in?

Software development. However this hiring freeze maybe related to incoming acquisition.  Anyway - I'm moving away to the new challenge - from 1 August back to Sec Architect role

volfkhat

Sounds like the Tech recession may be finally underway.


more news to come...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjgyFfYFQw8

JDMurray

More fear mongering? How about noting that "rightsizing" in HighTech has been going on steadily since 2020.

UnixGuy

Seems like 'big tech' in the US is doing layoffs, but startups (in the US) and other companies are still hiring. If you have skills, you're good!

In Australia, we're still being hacked on a weekly basis, super high demand for cyber skills. Yet cyber people keep getting frustrated and change jobs frequently. I am cyber people

TechGromit

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/tech/meta-facebook-layoffs

I've been reading more stories about a lot of the big silicon company's laying off or having hiring freezes. This is why I cautioned others jumping ship to chase a few extra dollars elsewhere.  I see the next recession on the horizon, just because you can make more money elsewhere, isn't always the best move for your career. Remember often last hired, first fired. Well actually first for go are consultants and contractors, last hired not far behind. I'm dating myself somewhat here, but back in the late 1990's, a year or two before the Y2K bug, companies where throwing money at computer programmers and other IT professionals to fix there code, after Y2K it was like a bad hangover after partying all night. Consultants that were charging $45+ a hour (roughly equal to $80 a hour or 165k a year today), couldn't find a job anywhere.and certainly not at the consultant rate they go accustomed to charging.  The Big problem with earning a huge salary then not, you think, I'm making lots of money, I can afford big car payments on a new Mercedes, a huge house and a lot of other Toys cause I made it in life. Nothing a more humbling experience than having bills due and not having any money to pay them. I've been there, having to take a cash advance on a credit card to pay my car insurance. Those were not fun times, let me tell you. 

If you thinking of switching employers, i recommend taking a serious look at who they are and how they may be affected in a downturn in the economy. Startups, consultants and small employers are not going to fair as well as larger companies and utilities. Just my 2 cents.