Incoming RECESSION?

E Double U

@TechGromit - I get your point, but don't think people should ever count on stability under any circumstance. I, along with thousands of others, was laid off from a large (99,000+ employees) multinational company because they offshored our work to countries with a cheaper labor force. I was there for over six years while others a decade or two. I recall the comfort many had being with such a large company for so long and passed up on external opportunities for reasons like you have listed then still ended up being let go in the end. 

If your main message is for people to exercise caution when changing employers then I agree. Recession or not, it is anyone's best interest to perform due dilligence while job seeking and take more than salary into consideration. But if your main message is to stay put out of fear then I wholeheartedly (and respectfully) disagree. 

Just my $0.02

FYI - I recently joined a big tech American company and they are still hiring like crazy. 

volfkhat

TechGromit said:

just saw this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mUZFkelM-8

JDMurray

Sounds like the makings of a great "buy" opportunity for Amazon's stock. The question is when to buy? Maybe just stick with dollar cost averaging for now.

TechGromit

E Double U said:

I was there for over six years while others a decade or two. I recall the comfort many had being with such a large company for so long and passed up on external opportunities for reasons like you have listed then still ended up being let go in the end. 

No job is absolutely guaranteed to be recession proof from layoffs, but in general larger companies have more resources and access to resources (raising money by selling stock) than a smaller employer would to weather a downturn in the economy.  

volfkhat

JDMurray said:

Sounds like the makings of a great "buy" opportunity for Amazon's stock. The question is when to buy? Maybe just stick with dollar cost averaging for now.

 
Hardly.

AMZN is laying off AHEAD of their most profitable time of year.
They know what's coming.


Don't bother DCA until after Q4 Earnings come out in January (at the earliest).
We still have Lower Lows to go.

JDMurray

volfkhat said:

We still have Lower Lows to go.

You sound happy about that. Is a possible beginning of the end of Capitalism and Western civilization something to feel giddy about?

volfkhat

JDMurray said:

You sound happy about that. Is a possible beginning of the end of Capitalism and Western civilization something to feel giddy about?

 
Who's fear mongering now?



Can't a guy just be excited about a Stock Market SUPERSALE??

JDMurray

volfkhat said:

 
Who's fear mongering now?

It was actually sarcasm. 

E Double U

volfkhat said:

JDMurray said:

Sounds like the makings of a great "buy" opportunity for Amazon's stock. The question is when to buy? Maybe just stick with dollar cost averaging for now.

We still have Lower Lows to go.

LIMBO :-)

E Double U

JDMurray said:

volfkhat said:

We still have Lower Lows to go.

You sound happy about that. Is a possible beginning of the end of Capitalism and Western civilization something to feel giddy about?

volfkhat

E Double U said:

     JDMurray said:

     You sound happy about that. Is a possible beginning of the end of Capitalism and Western civilization something to feel giddy about?

 
CAN'T WAIT!

volfkhat

2023...


I never really care for these "ODD" number years
  


But just to keep it interesting....  

Any Predictions?

JDMurray

There's some good predictions from 100 years ago what 2022 will be like and about railroads in 2023.

beads

JD;

As both a senior solutions designer working on billion dollar a year clients and as a business executive, will give you a couple of overreaching insights.

Looking at things at the client's budgetary level and my own group budget will tell you that significant reductions in hiring and shifts are in store for 2023. We will be hiring far less while most of my/our clients are significantly shifting monies from security back into platform engineering, legal for GRC and IT Ops as DevSecOps takes on a new global role. Basically, I see the 2023 recession to be mild to moderate as we retool clients of all sizes and figure out what we really need from security next. My prediction is that we will see smaller dedicated security departments as everyone takes back a piece of the security responsibilities. Or if you like security is failing and as one business exec recently told me: "Security has failed to do what they said they could do and I am pissed..."

Yes, a recession is now or about to be upon us as business needs to take a breather and shed some excess. Its normal and this is no different than any other recession.

- B/Eads

volfkhat

My Linkedin feed seems anecdotally heavy with  IT Layoffs this week.....

more to come!!

JDMurray

volfkhat said:

My Linkedin feed seems anecdotally heavy with  IT Layoffs this week.....

more to come!!

Misery loves company!

UnixGuy

Same, a friend of mine lost his job at Google as laid off 12,000 people

Microsoft also had lay offs. Probably correction of the hiring madness that happened 2 yrs ago.

The world of business:

- Let's outsource everything......oh bad idea lets insource everything.....nah let's outsource again......oh no it's expensive now....repeat

- we have so much work, talent shortage! let's hire.......nah we don't have enough work, let's do lay offs......oh no more work is coming, .talent shortage again........repeat

E Double U

Most of my LinkedIn feed is the same. Internally at AWS it is business as usual though. At least for now. 

volfkhat

Yep  

Part of me wonders if it just 'feels'  worse than it really is.

Goog, MS, AMZ    might be skew'ing this just a bit.


then again, my friend was an IT Recruiter who just got laid off at her job...   so this recession may be legitamate.


~more to come.

JDMurray

In all of the "tech" layoffs presently happening, I'm not seeing a percentage breakdown of how many IT people are actually being laid-off. It's one thing to shed engineers, programmers, consultants, extra middle-management, and physical plant support people, but we at TE are mostly concerned with the impact this right-sizing trend is having on IT and cybersecurity employment specifically.

If anyone sees any recent numbers about IT layoffs then please post the link(s).

UnixGuy

on the topic of (future) lay offs...found this interesting:

https://www.afr.com/technology/ai-is-coming-for-white-collar-jobs-gates-warns-20230123-p5cev7

The interesting part:

"

Double-edged sword

The topic of AI advancement has long been associated with broader societal concerns that more intelligent automation will cause havoc in the job market. Mr Gates did not shy away from a likely reality where knowledge-based, white-collar jobs would go as a result of the greater sophistication of AI.

Recent job losses at Google, Microsoft and Amazon –  where 12,000, 10,000 and 18,000 roles respectively were axed – have been ascribed to AI replacing staff in some quarters, but Mr Gates said this was not yet the case.

“AI isn’t, as yet, having an effect on the job market, but it will have an effect because it is always a question of what happens if you make things less expensive,” he said.

He said there were obvious benefits from generative AI in the medical profession, and across other industries where a lot of information needed to be understood.

He said AI could easily help a doctor write prescriptions and explain medical bills to patients, or also assist in both writing and understanding legal documents.

“It is going to be a much better tool than in the past,” Mr Gates said.

“Word processors will do a bit with your grammar and your spelling, but if you want to summarise a document or draft a new one, they weren’t that great, and that’s all changing.

“As you make a doctor’s job more efficient [with AI tools] it doesn’t mean you need less doctors, but there are some areas where things change, for example when radial tyres were invented, people didn’t drive more, so we have less tyre factories.

“Over time that labour went off and did other jobs, but now there will be a lot of angst about the fact that AI is targeting white-collar work.”

"

JDMurray

I don't believe anything "Dr. Bill" says anymore. He only talks up topics that will increase his own investments, such as his urgent plea for more COVID-19 testing--to support his own investment in medical testing businesses.

volfkhat

UnixGuy said:

on the topic of (future) lay offs...found this interesting:

https://www.afr.com/technology/ai-is-coming-for-white-collar-jobs-gates-warns-20230123-p5cev7

...

“Over time that labour went off and did other jobs, but now there will be a lot of angst about the fact that AI is targeting white-collar work.”

Nailed it!


Fortunately, i'm planning to be outta the Rat Race in another 5 years.

Hope i can hang on!

E Double U

volfkhat said:

UnixGuy said:

on the topic of (future) lay offs...found this interesting:

https://www.afr.com/technology/ai-is-coming-for-white-collar-jobs-gates-warns-20230123-p5cev7

...

“Over time that labour went off and did other jobs, but now there will be a lot of angst about the fact that AI is targeting white-collar work.”

Nailed it!


Fortunately, i'm planning to be outta the Rat Race in another 5 years.

Hope i can hang on!

Great! One less rat to race against. One down, billions to go 😇

volfkhat

P. reventing
E. lected
L. eaders
    (from)
O. wning
S. ecurities  &
i. nvestments

   
Brilliant marketing!!

https://www.businessinsider.com/josh-hawley-nancy-pelosi-stock-trading-ban-bill-name-2023-1

JDMurray

I wish to remind people of Pres. Obama's STOCK Act of 2012 that attempted to achieve the same thing and ended up being smoke-and-mirrors to confuse and pacify the anti-governmental-insider-trading pundits.

LordQarlyn

Okay, keep in mind, US companies are so very easily spooked. An economist sneezes and US companies panic like it's nuclear armageddon. 
But yeah correction cycles are and always have been part of the modern global economy. Just prepare during good times and you will get through the bad times. 

And defense is a good field, the world is an uncertain place, and globally, military spending will be minimally impacted (individual countries may vary of course), and there is much digitization and systems integration to be done in modern militaries. 

LordQarlyn

TechGromit said:

E Double U said:

I was there for over six years while others a decade or two. I recall the comfort many had being with such a large company for so long and passed up on external opportunities for reasons like you have listed then still ended up being let go in the end. 

No job is absolutely guaranteed to be recession proof from layoffs, but in general larger companies have more resources and access to resources (raising money by selling stock) than a smaller employer would to weather a downturn in the economy.  

To be honest in my experience, many larger publicly traded companies are often the first to initiate layoffs at any slight downturn, while smaller privately held companies may endure a little longer or offer partial furloughs before laying off staff. Of course, individual experiences vary. 

volfkhat

Layoffs SPIKING again...

TechGromit

TechGromit said:

E Double U said:

In The Netherlands there appears to be more vacancies than people to fill them. I just received a job offer last week and my current employer has trouble keeping people. Just so many opportunities available. 

It's the same with my employer, more job openings that we can fill with quality candidates. A few of my former co-workers left for more $, but I believe they are short sighted.  It's not all about the $ in your paycheck, it's good low cost medical benefits, yearly bonus, pension, stock options, 401k match, profit sharing, and very stable employment environment. 

Just a follow up to this point. Once of my co-workers who jump ship for more money at another smaller company, seven months later they laid off his entire department. He said when he was applying for positions, employers received hundreds of applications per job, (and he has a current CISSP cert)  where as it was under ten before. He did end up landing another job a few months later, don't know if he took a pay cut, but it's only a contract job that will last till the end of the year. He's seriously looking to get back in with my company. I say you can't put a price on job stability.